Accuracy of historical population forecasts
The purpose of this project is to analyse the accuracy of population forecasts prepared by statistical agencies in the past. Forecast errors are an important aspect of forecast quality. Moreover, they serve as guidelines for directing research efforts in order to improve the accuracy of current forecasts. Finally, they are useful as a benchmark for assessing expected errors in stochastic forecasts, see the project "Stochastic population forecasts".
N. Keilman. 1991. Uncertainty in National Population Forecasting: Issues, Backgrounds, Analyses, Recommendations. Amsterdam and Rockland, MA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers.
N. Keilman. 1991. Analysing ex-post observed errors in a series of population forecasts. Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft 17, 411-432.
N. Keilman and T. Kucera. 1991. The impact of forecasting methodology on the accuracy of national population forecasts: evidence from the Netherlands and Czechoslovakia. Journal of Forecasting, 10, 371-398.
N. Keilman. 1997. Ex-post errors in official population forecasts in industrialized countries. Journal of Official Statistics 13, 245-277.
N. Keilman. 1998. How accurate are the United Nations’ world population projections? Population and Development Review, supplement to Volume 24, 15-41.
N. Keilman. 2001. Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95. Population Studies 55, 149-164.