Stochastic population forecasts

The aim of this project is to quantify uncertainty in population forecasts by means of stochastic models. A case study for Norway has been completed. Current research focuses on stochastic forecasts for countries of the European Economic Area. This is a collaborative project with research teams in Finland (Alho of Joensuu University, and Nikander of Statistics Finland), the Netherlands (Cruijsen of the NIDI, and Alders, Gjaltema and De Beer of Statistics Netherlands), and Norway (Pham of Statistics Norway, and Keilman).

N. Keilman and D. Q. Pham. 2000. Predictive intervals for age-specific fertility. European Journal of Population 16, 41-66.

N. Keilman. 2001. Uncertain population forecasts. Nature 412, 2 August 2001, 490-491. Internet http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v412/n6846/full/ 412490a0_fs.html

N. Keilman. TFR predictions and Brownian motion theory. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland. 38 (2002), 209-221.

N. Keilman, D.Q. Pham, and A. Hetland. Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway.Demographic Research 6 -15 May 2002, 409-454 http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/15/6-15.pdf

N. Keilman. Pensjonskommisjonen bør ta usikkerhet i befolkningsutviklingen alvorlig (Norwegian only). Økonomiske analyser 2/2003, 16-24. http://www.ssb.no/emner/08/05/10/oa/200302/keilman.pdf

N. Keilman and D.Q. Pham. Time series errors and empirical errors in fertility forecasts in the Nordic countries. International Statistical Review 72(1)2004, 5-18 .

N. Keilman and D. Q. Pham. 2004. Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area: A report on Work packages 2 and 3 of the UPE project. http://folk.uio.no/keilman/upe/upe.html