Verification

Verification results are produced to explore the quality of weather forecasts from:

• numerical weather prediction (NWP) models
• statistical procedures combining NWP forecasts and observations
• forecasters

The main purpose is to improve the quality of weather forecasts by monitoring errors and trying to make corrections. Such corrections may be undertaken at different stages in the forecasting process, and include:

• improving the numerical or statistical model
• making statistical corrections of the model results
• forecasters learning to adjust the end forecast according to verification statistics.

The forecasts are compared to available weather observations, such as:

• surface observations of wind, precipitation, temperature, cloud cover and pressure from about 200 synoptic stations throughout Norway, available every three hours. 
• radio sonde observations of wind, humidity, temperature and geopotential height, giving a vertical profile of the atmospheric state at 8 locations in the Norwegian area, available two or four times a day.

For some purposes the forecasts are also compared to a representative selection of European observing stations.

A wide range of figures and statistical measures are produced to make different groups of users able to answer their questions concerning forecast quality. 

Verification results are mainly produced for the forecasters and for research purposes. The results are presented on our intranet, as well as on paper, and are thus readily available for our staff, whether forecasters or researchers.

Updated January 28. 2002 © Norwegian Meteorological Institute