Erling Moxnes' Home Page
Professor of System Dynamics
System Dynamics Group, Department
of Geography
Go to Department of Geography,
Teaching:
Together with the system dynamics
group I teach Courses in System Dynamics (Master Program).
Research:
Here you find a list of my publications.
My main interest lies in understanding why the presumably best policies are often ignored in practical decision-making. By using laboratory experiments among students and professionals I try to make contributions to the emerging literature on misperceptions of dynamics (MOD). The MOD literature shows that decision makers oversimplify complex dynamic problems in the direction of static systems, with the result that chosen policies are not only inaccurate but also systematically biased. I have investigated the MOD hypothesis for renewable resources, see my article on fishery management in Management Science for which I received the Jay W. Forrester Award. The results show that the predominant theory of mismanagement, the “tragedy of the commons” is not the only explanation. MOD leads to overutilization and to overinvestment even with no commons problem present, MOD exacerbates the commons problem and it makes the commons problem harder to solve. Understanding why decision makers choose biased policies is both a motivation for doing analysis and it is useful information for information dissemination. MOD is only investigated in a limited number of studies thus far. It seems to have the potential to explain and improve a large number of decisions of great importance to humans, businesses and to society at large. Therefore a continuation of this work seems a most fruitful research program for the coming years. We are currently working on or have finished experimental investigations of: the practical usefulness of decision tools, the effect of leadership in gaming situations, the importance of anchoring and adjustment heuristics for diffusion of information, misperceptions of the climate change problem, transition dynamics of various regimes to allocate fishing rights (individual transferable quotas and auctioned seasonal quotas), and the nature of commodity cycles.
In another line of research I have worked with stochastic optimization, and
I have developed my own practical adaptation to “Stochastic optimization in
policy space” (SOPS). In an article in The Journal of Environmental
Economics and Management, SOPS is used to find optimal management strategies
for a fish resource when there is measurement error. This problem has not
been properly solved with previous methods. The results show that measurement
error is much more important for harvesting policies than stochastic variation,
which has been studied earlier. The paper also provides estimates of the value
of measurement accuracy, an estimate of importance for decisions regarding
the proper amount of measurement effort. In an article in The Journal of
Ecological Modelling SOPS is used to study optimal management of reindeer.
In several other reports I have used SOPS to examine other issues in renewable
resource management: the importance of accuracy in predictions of environmental
changes, harvesting strategies in cohort models, harvesting and investment
strategies in a fishery model with fleet dynamics, and harvesting strategies
in a two-species model. In a forthcoming article in The System Dynamics
Review SOPS is used to study policy sensitivity. SOPS will be a valuable
tool for future laboratory experiments in that the method can be used to find
optimal or near-to-optimal solutions to complex, non-linear, stochastic, dynamic
systems. The method also gives deep insights into the types of dynamic problems
that are central in system dynamics education. Currently we are working in
cooperation with the Institute of Marine Research in Bergen on applying SOPS
to find catch policies for the multi-species fisheries of the Barents Sea.
Contact information:
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Work address: |
Department of Geography, |
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University of Bergen, PostBox 7800 |
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N-5020
Bergen, Norway |
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Visiting address: |
Fosswinkelsgate 6, |
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Home address: |
Sollien 62D, |
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N-5096
Bergen, Norway |
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Phone: |
(+ 47) 5558 4119 (work) |
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(+ 47) 55 293408 (home) |
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Fax: |
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E-mail: |
Last updated Oct. 22 2004 by Erling
Moxnes
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