http://hdl.handle.net/1956/1967 Search the Channel search http://bora.uib.no/simple-search http://hdl.handle.net/1956/2385 Title: What we don´t measure about human resources: towards a conceptual framework for analysing the role of soft variables in human resources management modelling <br/> <br/>Authors: Tabacaru, Mihaela <br/> <br/>Abstract: Low retention of valuable employees and difficulties in finding qualified candidates for recruitment are two issues managers face in Romania, but are a growing concern around the world (Deloitte, 2004; Holton & Naquin, 2004). High turnover of specialists disrupts organizational continuity (Lum, et al,1998) and the current policies don’t seem to have the expected results, according to the field study of the author. We suspect that the cause of inefficient policies lies in a misperception of dynamics, ignorance of feedback loops and of intangible stocks, like the job satisfaction of employees. Although well documented in psychology literature (Lichenstein, 1998), the influence of job satisfaction on turnover seems to be ignored by the policy makers. We test policies that account for the determinants of job satisfaction and show that the outcome of such policies is better than the current ones. Implications for HR policy design and directions for future research are indicated. http://hdl.handle.net/1956/2239 Title: The Feedback Method : A System Dynamics Approach to Teaching Macroeconomics <br/> <br/>Authors: Wheat Jr., I. David <br/> <br/>Abstract: This thesis documents a method for improving undergraduate instruction in macroeconomics. Called the feedback method, it enables students to learn about dynamic behavior in a market economy by using feedback loop diagrams and interactive computer simulation models instead of static graphs or differential equations. There are at least two types of pedagogical problems associated with graphical representation of the economy. First, students seem to have difficulty interpreting static graphs used to illustrate dynamics, which raises questions about the value added by graphs to student understanding. Secondly, the most prominent graph in modern macroeconomics principles textbooks—the aggregate supply and demand (AS/AD) model—appears to misrepresent disequilibrium conditions in the economy and cause students who understand the graph to misunderstand important behavior in the economy. The feedback method emphasizes dynamics rather than static equilibrium conditions. How the economy changes over time in different contexts is the behavioral question that students repeatedly encounter. The structure of the economy is explained in terms of reinforcing and counteracting feedback loops. Student understanding of the source of dynamic economic behavior requires seeking, identifying, and explaining relevant feedback structure in an economic system. Interactive computer simulation activities reinforce the insights gained from studying feedback loops. Even small-scale student participation in model-building seems to facilitate understanding of a larger model; moreover, such participation may build respect for the scientific method and an appreciation for theory building by economists. The feedback method is a structural explanation of economic behavior, but it also provides an improved learning structure for students, and the thesis reports on four experiments designed to test that claim. Two experiments examined student preferences for methods of learning macroeconomics; for example, using static graphs or a feedback loop diagram. The experimental designs were quite different, but the results were the same—a significant majority preferred the feedback method. The most commonly cited reason: feedback loops enable the students to visualize a process in the economy. The third and fourth experiments addressed the performance question. In the third experiment, students showed more understanding of GDP when they had access to a stock-and-flow feedback diagram of the economy. In the final experiment, students using feedback loop diagrams displayed more understanding of business cycle dynamics than other students who had access to an AS/AD graph. Teaching students to search for feedback structure in the economy and using computer simulation to connect structure with behavior appears to be a promising method for teaching macroeconomics. http://hdl.handle.net/1956/2027 Title: Essays on commodity cycles based on expanded Cobweb experiments of electricity markets <br/> <br/>Authors: Arango, Santiago Aramburo <br/> <br/>Abstract: This thesis studies cycles in commodity markets. Such fluctuations have significant adverse effects on consumers and producers. The properties of commodity price fluctuations are well known. However, there is considerable disagreement about the underlying causes of market fluctuations. Understanding such cycles is essential for policy analysis. We analyze the case of recently deregulated electricity markets, where several authors have expressed a concern that capacity cycles may emerge. The potential occurrence of cycles represents a major threat to electricity security, since there could be periods with insufficient capacity to satisfy demand followed by periods with excess capacity and unsustainably low prices. Traditional economic literature argues that oscillations are caused by external shocks. We explore an alternative explanation that comes from the internal structure of the system. The method is laboratory experiments. To link to the existing literature we start by investigating the simplest economic model of cycles (the Cobweb model) with standard conditions, linear demand, and constant costs. Step by step, we add complexity (and realism) to the simple model. We introduce long lifetimes of production capacity and then we introduce a two period investment lag in addition to long lifetimes. Consistent with previous experiments and the rational expectations hypothesis, we find no evidence of cycles in the basic design and in the capacity lifetime treatment. Average prices are close to Cournot Nash equilibrium with a bias towards competitive prices. In the investment lag treatment, however, variance and autocorrelation analysis indicate cyclical tendencies. In a follow up experiment we introduce a constant price elasticity with dynamic demand adjustment. The experiment gives rise to larger and asymmetric fluctuations similar to observed commodity prices (e.g. sugar and coffee prices). In a third experiment, we increase the frequency of decisions. We observe oscillatory behaviour in investment activity and prices. The cyclical tendency is stronger than in the previous experiments, and the results corroborate assumptions made in previous simulation studies of electricity markets. In a fourth paper, we look at empirical evidence of fluctuations in some electricity markets in South America. While the time-series are not long enough to conclude that there are systematic fluctuations, we observe that both Brazil and Chile have experienced very small reserve margins, electricity supply crises, and considerable shortages of electricity. The likely cause is lack of investments in new generation capacity. Argentina and Colombia have high reserve margins and very low spot prices, largely because of the deep recessions in their respective economies. The thesis contributes to a better understanding of endogenous causes of market fluctuations. This should call for an increased interest in market models that include supply and demand side dynamics. Also, the findings should serve as a motivation to search for alternative stabilising policies in existing markets, particularly in markets where deregulation is considered. http://hdl.handle.net/1956/1969 Title: Interfuel Substitution in OECD-European Electricity Production <br/> <br/>Authors: Moxnes, Erling <br/> <br/>Abstract: Fuel substitution in OECD-European electricity production is described by a putty-clay formulation. At the time of investment, fuel shares are determined according to a logit model. These fuel shares are maintained throughout the lifetime of the power plants. However, a significant share of capacity is assumed to be flexible. Short-term fuel switching is described by a logit model. An attempt has been made to formulate the model such that all parameters have a real life interpretation. This enables the use of a priori data about all parameters. The model gives a very good fit to historical time-series for oil, gas and coal demand when fuel premiums are calibrated. The most striking finding is that there is a strong preference for the use of coal. Because of the a priori data, the model is not very sample dependent. Thus, it should be well suited for policy studies or for predictions. The model should be used with caution if very high fuel prices are expected.