http://hdl.handle.net/1956/1970 Search the Channel search http://bora.uib.no/simple-search http://hdl.handle.net/1956/1981 Title: Misperceptions of Global Climate Change : information Policies <br/> <br/>Authors: Moxnes, Erling; Saysel, Ali K. <br/> <br/>Abstract: Global climate change is an atmospheric commons problem where the basic actors are the states. In democratic nations national policy initiatives depend on the opinion of the electorate. Unless there is a proper popular perception of climate change, it will be difficult to undertake appropriate and timely measures. Previous experimental studies of people’s understanding of climate change and of other renewable resource problems have revealed that people misperceive the basic dynamics and that they favour decisions that are systematically biased in the direction of over-utilisation. In the present laboratory experiment, with 251 students, the focus is on understanding why people misperceive and how misperceptions could be avoided. Using a simulator, the subjects are asked to control total global emissions of CO2 to reach a given target for the atmospheric CO2-concentration. Compared to a previous study we find that full information about a simplified system leads to improved performance, particularly among students with a background in mathematics. Subjects perform better in an analogous, however more easily visualisable system, indicating that they have difficulties forming appropriate mental models of the more abstract atmospheric problem. Two information treatments, thought to improve mental models, turn out to have insignificant effects. Finally, information feedback about the development of the CO2-concentration helps. According to our findings, current information from the IPCC and the standard media coverage is not effective in helping people to choose policies that are consistent with their own preferences. http://hdl.handle.net/1956/1980 Title: Dynamic Simulation Model of Common Pool Resource Cooperation Experiments <br/> <br/>Authors: Castillo, Daniel; Saysel, Ali Kerem <br/> <br/>Abstract: We investigate the decision rules adopted by individuals in local communities, whose livelihoods depend on common pool resource stocks and who face the cooperation dilemma in their everyday life. For this purpose, field experiments are modeled and the model structure and output are confronted with experimental data and with the relevant theory of collective action proposed by Ostrom (1998). The field experiments analyze the cooperative action among coastal communities in Providence Island (Colombian Caribbean Sea). The simulation model is built according to the principles and methods of System Dynamics. The model formalizes the feedback causality among reputation, trust and reciprocity as suggested by Ostrom (1998). Moreover, based on the payoff structure used in the experiments, it considers other behavioral factors such as temptation to free ride, profit maximization, and awareness of the individuals in feedback perspective. Depending on the initial conditions and parameter values, model behavior replicates major patterns of the experimental data. It reveals path dependent characteristic to the initial trust of the individuals in the group. The variables and decision rules built into the model structure provide the basis for a dialogue between the theories of collective action and future experimental designs to test and improve such theories. http://hdl.handle.net/1956/1979 Title: Estimating customer utility of energy efficiency standards for refrigerators <br/> <br/>Authors: Moxnes, Erling <br/> <br/>Abstract: A frequent argument against efficiency standards is that they prohibit products that represent optimal choices for customers and thus lead to reduced customer utility. In this paper we propose and test a method to estimate such losses. Conjoint analysis is used to estimate utility functions for individuals that have recently bought a refrigerator. The utility functions are used to calculate the individuals’ utility of all the refrigerators available in the market. Next the method is used to estimate losses due to energy efficiency standards that remove products from the market. The method is found to give accurate estimates that are consistent with other data on customer choices. Contrary to previous claims, we find that efficiency standards can lead to increased utility for the average customer. This is possible because customers do not make perfect choices in the first place. http://hdl.handle.net/1956/1978 Title: Potential Contribution of Existing Computer-Based Models to Comparative Assessment of Development Options <br/> <br/>Authors: Pedercini, Matteo http://hdl.handle.net/1956/1977 Title: Policy Sensitivity Analysis : simple versus complex fishery models <br/> <br/>Authors: Moxnes, Erling <br/> <br/>Abstract: Sensitivity analysis is often used to judge the sensitivity of model behaviour to uncertain assumptions about model formulations and parameter values. Since the ultimate goal of modelling is typically policy recommendation, one may suspect that it is even more useful to test the sensitivity of policy recommendations. A major reason for this is that behaviour sensitivity is not necessarily a reliable predictor of policy sensitivity. Policy sensitivity analysis is greatly simplified if one can find optimal policies. Then one can simply see how the optimal policy changes when the model assumptions are altered. Our case is a fishery model. We investigate how (near-to) optimal policies change when we correct for a typical estimation bias in an aggregate model, when we substitute the aggregate model with a cohort representation of the same fishery, and when we switch from assuming variable to assuming constant fish prices and per unit variable costs. Normally these assumptions follow from the analyst’s school of thought without testing. The most surprising result is that while assumptions about the fish price and the per unit variable costs matter a lot, the choice between an aggregate and a cohort model is of little importance. http://hdl.handle.net/1956/1976 Title: System dynamics model for integrated environmental assessment of large scale surface irrigation <br/> <br/>Authors: Saysel, Ali Kerem <br/> <br/>Abstract: Problems of irrigation systems performance and agricultural environment in large scale surface irrigation is analysed with a dynamic simulation model. Present model is a simplified and validated version of an original model built for the analysis of relevant problems in Southeast Turkey. Model consists of components representing farmlands, land and water development, irrigation and salinization, soil nutrients and pest dynamics. In addition, population dynamics and urban development are integrated. Model components include hypothesis on irrigation authorities’ and farmers’ decisions on irrigation release, water consumption, land transformation, crop selection and fertilizer and pesticide application. Structure and behaviour analysis of the model helps understanding the effects of represented decisions on the irrigation system performance and agricultural environment in the long term at regional level. Model structure can further be explored and custom tailored for educational and managerial use in specific case studies. http://hdl.handle.net/1956/1975 Title: Model simplification and validation : illustration with indirect structure validity tests <br/> <br/>Authors: Saysel, Ali Kerem; Barlas, Yaman <br/> <br/>Abstract: Simplification of a large system dynamics model and validation of the simplified version is illustrated. The original model represents agricultural and environmental problems of irrigation development in Southeast Turkey and consists of 62 stock variables. Its simplified version with a narrow model boundary and higher level of aggregation is a general representation of its selected dynamics and consists of 11 stock variables only. Analysis of reference behaviours, indirect structure validity tests and scenario runs reveal simplified model as a valid and useful version of the original. Simplification helps distilling essential model structures that cause selected problems and increases the quality and understanding of models. It can also be a step towards building theory-like structures and general representation of case specific problems in various application domains. http://hdl.handle.net/1956/1974 Title: The World Model Controversy <br/> <br/>Authors: Myrtveit, Magne <br/> <br/>Abstract: In 1971 Jay Forrester published his book World Dynamics, where he presented a high-level simulation model of the socio-economic-environmental world system. The main purpose of the model and the accompanying book was to encourage an open debate about the long-term future on our planet. The World Model was created in a time where pollution and other negative effects of industrialization and economic growth started to become recognized. Forrester made the assumption that life on earth is bounded within certain limits, such as available space and resources. Based on this he concluded that exponential economic growth cannot continue forever; sooner or later one or more limits will be reached. The question, then, is how mankind can manage its own future in ways that can avoid an unpleasant encounter with the limits to growth. The Club of Rome, a non-profit research organization, appointed Dennis Meadows, Donella Meadows and others to elaborate on the work initiated by Forrester. The resulting report, Limits to Growth, became a bestseller almost over night. Large parts of the established economic community reacted with massive criticism towards the limits to growth ideas, and characterized the work as dooms day prophecies with no basis in observed data and established theories. In this essay I describe System Dynamics and econometrics; the scientific home bases of the two sides in the controversy. Based on a theoretical framework developed by Ernan McMullin, I try to categorize the issues that were discussed in the context of the World Model. My findings are that the World Model debate is a mixed controversy, involving different views on facts, theories, principles and values. The controversy has evolved over three decades, and has not ended. The main questions are still relevant and subject to discussion among scientists, politicians, environmentalists, and ordinary people.