Electronics

1. Scope

The scope of this paper is limited to encompass electronic, acoustic, photonic and micro/nano-electromechanical devices, circuits, components, sensors, actuators, systems and their interfacing with the rest of the world. Typically, transmitters and receivers are employed for such interfacing. The research embraces methods for modelling, simulating, prototyping and manufacturing the devices and systems mentioned. It also includes a large variety of applications, e.g. remote sensing and surveillance, localization and positioning, micromechanical operations, medical and automotive electronics.

Most importantly, we try to identify trends with considerable impact on the direction and rate our society is moving. The key words are: convergence, integration, communication everywhere and at all times, and ubiquitous computing. Monitoring and acting are important keys to a vision of an ambient intelligence that we may live in. Smart sensors, speech recognition systems, and intelligent actuators, will be helpers in this vision. We will concentrate on the “hard” side of this trend, but will include embedded system software whenever appropriate to achieve proper design tradeoffs. One spotted trend in this area is “software radio”, where traditional hardware parts may be implemented in software. Moreover, whenever necessary for future research within the scope of “Electronics”, we will envision development of new applications to our research areas, fueled by progress in computational science.

2. Introduction

Nanotechnology can be seen as the technology based on devices taking advantage of quantum effects and size effects occurring in nm-dimension objects. It is a cross-disciplinary endeavour, relying on subjects such as physics, chemistry, electrical engineering, biology and medicine. Moreover, the ability to control or manipulate matter on the atomic scale is central to nanotechnology, and a basis for future electronic applications.

Transmitters and receivers, including components and software, are vital to connect system functions in a network.. The transmitters and receivers in question are to be regarded as sub-systems, where the main system functions are connected to communications and navigation. The views concerning receivers apply mainly to the functions of receivers, but to some extent also to the purpose and use of these functions.

Optics and photonics include:

Fiber optical communications: dense wavelength-division-multiplexing, optical routing and processing.

Optical sensors: applications in medicine, structure monitoring, and offshore.

Quantum communications: Quantum cryptography, teleportation.

Quantum information processing (quantum computing).

To increase the speed of optical communication systems, more data processing will be performed at the optical layer. The technology for optical processing will be applied and further developed for the next generation of communications; quantum communications, i.e., exchanging quantum information (quantum bits). Due to low decoherence, photons may also be interesting for quantum computing if sufficiently efficient nonlinear interactions are discovered (nanotechnology). Quantum memory may be achieved using techniques for "stopping" the photons. Optical components used for classical and quantum communication will also be interesting in sensor technology, e.g. for application in medicine.

Acoustics spans a wide range of research fields and application areas. Within InfoSam2020, we concentrate on the areas engineering and environmental acoustics, underwater acoustics (remote sensing and other applications), and music and audio technology (sound recording, transmission, reproduction etc).

3. Authoritative foresight sources

Below are given a few references to international foresight or review papers of relevance for “Electronics”.

A study on “Teknisk Framsyn” (Technological foresight) in Sweden produced a series of reports, developed and presented in 1999. It was performed as a joint effort between The Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences (IVA), the Swedish National Board for Industrial and Technical Development (NUTEK), the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research and the Federation of Swedish Industries, and is conducted in close cooperation with the Government, companies, authorities and other interested parties. One of the reports considered “Information and Communication Systems”, with key areas: ubiquitous IT, complex systems, infotainment (Upplevelseteknologi), information safety and security, architecture and infrastructure, and interfacing. An update, called Nytt, bättre och säkrare – IT i framtidssamhellets tjänst (New, better and more secure – IT at the service of future society) was published in 2003, and can also be found on [2]. The three keywords are not new to us: convergence, integration, and transparency (ubiquitous computing). This trend is fueled by Moore’s law, and progress in wireless communication. From our point of view, this report also embraces R&D & education in micro- and nano-electronics, wireless communication, RF devices, and more within the realm of “Electronics”.

3.1 The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors

The famous Moore’s law from 1965 states that the number of transistors that can be economically integrated on a chip doubles every year. More recently, the doubling takes about 18 months. Several corollaries of this “law” (really an observation and a 10 year prediction) offer better computing performance, and less power consumption, as feature sizes decrease. The semiconductor industry, and the EDA industry (EDA – Electronic Design Automation), both work hard to continue fulfilling Moore’s law. To do so, roadmaps are needed, to identify and eliminate possible stumbling blocks. The most authoritative map available is the so-called International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors. This Roadmap (ITRS) is an assessment of semiconductor technology requirements. The objective of the ITRS is to ensure advancements in the performance of integrated circuits. This assessment is a cooperative effort of the global industry manufacturers and suppliers, government organizations, consortia, and universities.

    The ITRS identifies the technological challenges and needs facing the semiconductor industry over the next 15 years, including possibilities for nanotechnology devices. The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the European Electronic Component Association (EECA), the Japan Electronics & Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA), the Korean Semiconductor Industry Association (KSIA), and Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association (TSIA) sponsor ITRS. The 2003 roadmaps are found via [1].

3.2 The MEDEA+ Design Automation Roadmap 2002

This roadmap outlines the future requirements for design automation solutions for Europe. The steering group had representatives from all major semiconductor companies in Europe including STMicroelectronics, Philips, Infineon, Alcatel, and Ericsson.

3.3 The National Nanotechnology Initiative

The American initiative for research and development based on nanotechnology, based on the document NSTC/NSET Report, July 2000, see [NNI04].

3.4 Biomedical applications for MEMS and micro fluidics

Proc. IEEE, Vol 92, No. 1, January 2004 is a special review issue on biomedical applications for MEMS and micro fluidics.  Many of the technologies reviewed are not very common in clinical practice today, so one possible future prospect would be further development and more widespread deployment of these technologies. At any rate, the reviews point out the major applications and motivation for research in the field.

3.5 Nanotechnology at NTNU

The report Nanotechnology at NTNU 2003,initiated by Rector, addresses status and future possibilities for nanotechnology research at NTNU. An international panel led by Prof. B. Stokke, Dept. of Physics, wrote the report based on a site visit at NTNU, and surveys of current research. Moreover, the report reviews current trends in nanotechnology initiatives in Sweden, Denmark, Europe (EU), USA, and Japan.

3.6 Acoustics

Computational acoustics

Many fields in applied acoustics rely heavily on the computation of sound field propagation through fluids and structures. Most computational methods have a complexity, which grows very rapidly with the studied bandwidth. In environmental noise control, the so-called EU noise directive states that strategic noise mapping must be carried out for all large European cities, railways and roads no later than 2008 [EUNo03]. This is a highly complex task, which is computationally very demanding when large areas should be studied, and many noise sources need to be taken into account.

Marine acoustics

Underwater or marine acoustics is very important as a key element in the preservation, de­velopment and exploitation of marine resources, and therefore of particular importance for Norway, as reflected by the national thematic research area of marine technology. Furthermore, acoustics is the primary tool for surveying the amount and distri­bution of biomass, fish and plankton in the sea. Recent work has been in connection with an industry project aiming to develop acoustic sensors for gath­ering acoustic backscattered data of plankton from moored or drifting buoys.

Traffic noise

Noise from road traffic and from aircrafts is dominating the noise problem in Norway, and it has been estimated that approximately half a million people in Norway are strongly disturbed by noise sources (Regjeringens miljøvernpolitikk og rikets miljøtilstand, St meld nr 8, 1999-2000). Research is needed for developing less noisy cars and trains, and an understanding of the road-tire noise generation. Models for sound propagation from a noise source in realistic environments need to be developed. Finally, better models of how noise is perceived are needed, as discussed below under Perception of sound.

Perception of sound

A common understanding in several fields is that we have insufficient knowledge of how a noise situation is perceived by a listener. As an example, when increasingly accurate predictions of noise situations can be made, inaudible details might be computed at a high cost. Consequently, models for the annoyance as caused by various noise sources need to be developed.

A similar situation occurs in communication acoustics, whether it is speech or general audio signals. The available bandwidth for communication increases rapidly and makes new multimedia services possible [AES]. Knowledge of the perceived Quality of Service by the end users will be essential for an efficient use of available resources [ITU]. The rapid development of audio and video codecs in the last decade, such as in the MPEG standards, are examples of that.

4. Drivers

4.1 Nanotechnology

There is an increasing number of research centres worldwide devoted towards nanotechnology. Some initiatives are presented briefly below.

NNI

This initiative was launched in 2001, and is the basis for the United States government’s investment in nanotechnology. The goal is to ensure the leading role of United States in the first half of the 21^st century. The long-term perspective aims at novel breakthrough within areas such as medicine and nano-electronics. President Bush has proposed to spend almost 1 billion US dollars on nanotechnology R&D in 2005.

EU

Within the European Union there is an increasing funding of nanotechnology. Out of 17.5 billion € allocated to the 6^th Framework program, 1.3 billion € is allocated to funding within nanotechnology, knowledge-based materials, and new industrial processes and devices [EUNA04]. Three priority areas have been suggested, including 1) information society technologies (nano-electronics, optoelectronics, micro-nanotechnology) and 2) nanotechnologies and nanosciences, knowledge based multifunctional materials and new production processes and devices. 

The Nordic countries

In our neighbouring countries there are several examples of nanotechnology initiatives: for example MC² at Chalmers and The Nanometer Consortium in Lund in Sweden. It is worth noting that at Lund there is a new master program in nanotechnology. This is a cross disciplinary education, with one basis in electrical engineering. Sweden has established a “Swedish Nano Network”.

4.2 MEMS

For MEMS devices, the main applications have traditionally been automotive air bag accelerometers and cheap disposable blood pressure sensors. Upcoming market drivers include feedback mechanical sensors for minimally invasive and robotic surgery, acoustic chemical sensors for smart buildings, and switches and filters for high frequency integrated circuits.

Minimally invasive surgery offers benefits both in economic terms and in terms of reduced patient trauma. In the coming 15 years, the share of minimally invasive surgery is predicted to increase to about 80%. The main problem hampering a more widespread use of the technology is that it constrains the 3D vision and manual dexterity of the surgeon. With MEMS devices, it would be possible to measure applied force and also provide a means of measuring the mechanical properties of different tissues.

MEMS devices are also finding applications in high frequency electronics. Currently, the main application is for switches. MEMS switches offer benefits such as lower losses, better isolation and better linearity than PIN diode switches. High quality MEMS resonators and mechanically tuned capacitors have also been demonstrated. Both switches and resonators are predicted to become important as means of increasing the integration level.

Passive micro arrays based on hybridization and optical readout of signals from fluorescent tags are currently dominant research tools in genetic research. These analysis tools call for sample preparation and can often only be used in order to assess the final result. In order to integrate a sequence of biological or chemical processes, micro fluidic devices (lab-on-a-chip) are being developed. Important drivers in this field are genetic research and drug development, and the commercial deployment of newly discovered bioassays for point-of-care and field applications. The development of this kind of bioassays could be regarded as an important step on the road to personalized and predictive medicine.

In order to put the acquired biomedical knowledge to a more widespread use, it is of interest to develop cheap disposable micro fluidic devices that are rugged enough for applications outside research laboratories. One way of achieving this could be to break down the analyses in elementary operations that could be implemented by general-purpose programmable micro fluidic hardware.

Telecommunication, sensor- and medical systems are examples of application areas for analog and mixed-signal (AMS) integrated systems. The evolution of AMS sub-systems will be determined by the interplay between cost and performance, where performance is often measured in terms of speed and complexity. Important system drivers are:

• System-on-chip (SOC)
• High speed wired and wireless communication systems
• Portable battery operated equipment
• Magnetic and optical storage
• Automotive, drive by wire, environmental and safety

• Data converters

4.3 Transmitters and receivers

The drivers of the development of transmitters and receivers for wireless communication are the mass markets. Development costs are so high that they can only be justified by very large quantities of units sold. As an example, about one million equipments containing GPS receivers were sold in Europe in the year 2000, but this volume is expected to reach six millions in a year or two from now. About ¾ of this latter number concerns GPS receiver cards mounted in mobile phones, and the rest is mainly car-mounted units. A consequence of the attraction of the mass markets and the subsequent stiff competition is the declining price per unit, which in its turn further increases the size of the market. The exponential growth of the mobile-phone market is another example of the same kind.

5. National partners

Mikroelektronikk-forum (MEF) is a national consortium of approx. 10 companies and the Department of electronics and telecommunications. It focuses on recruitment and education of microelectronics designers.

A micro-technological research laboratory is established in Gaustadbekkdalen towards micro and nanotechnology based on silicon [SINT04]. This initiative is headed by A. Hanneborg, SINTEF Elektronikk og kybernetikk.

The Norwegian Research Council (NFR) has launched a program called NANOMAT [NAMA04] towards nanotechnology and novel materials. This program is an important basis for funding of future experimental research within novel electronic materials for nano-scale detectors and sensors.

A cross-disciplinary NTNU Nanotechnology laboratory is being established at the Gløshaugen campus, with emphasis on four subjects: 1. Nano-electronics, -photonics, and –magnetism, 2. Bionanotechnolgy, 3. Nanostructured materials, and 4. nanotechnology for energy and the environment. 

The IME Faculty will identify possible national partners in this foresight work on electronics. We can select partners for discussion; partners we believe will stay “alive” for a long time. Such partners are found in companies, research institutes and in governance. But we should also think about the so-called “yet unborn enterprises” that will be born out of innovation from our faculty.

Research collaboration on research project in communication acoustics and environmental acoustics.

Financing of adjunct professor's position in marine acoustics.

 Collaboration on research projects in marine acoustics/computational acoustics.

6. Possible scenarios

Nanotechnology is cross disciplinary as subject, and future electronic devices will not only be based on a continued downscaling of standard silicon technology. Novel electronic phenomena encountered in nanometer (nm) sized materials, biological, and vivid materials will be important, and increased functionalization is expected. This will lead to novel applications. It is worth quoting NNI in this context: “The impact of nanotechnology on health, wealth, and lives of people could be at least as significant as the combined influences of microelectronics, medical imaging, computer aided engineering, and man-made polymers developed in the century just past”.

Photonics

To increase the speed of optical communication systems, more data processing will be performed at the optical layer. The technology for optical processing will be applied and further developed for the next generation of communication systems; quantum communications. Due to low decoherence, photons may also be interesting for quantum computing. Optical components used for classical and quantum communication will also be interesting in sensor technology. In particular, application of photonics in medicine (diagnosis and treatment) seems to be a promising field. 

7. Important areas for R&D & education within the scope.

CAS (Circuits and Systems)

The area Circuits and Systems encompasses (in Norway) design of digital and analog devices and systems. Manufacturing is mostly done abroad, and we do not believe that Norway will get to produce microelectronics components. Today, that major companies are “fabless”, implying that production is done where suited, based upon computer-generated mask data.

Research within AMS (Analog and Mixed Signal) integrated circuits will continue to focus on techniques and architectures for further increase in speed/frequency and accuracy. At the same time, the power consumption must be reduced. Key areas will include analog IPs for SOCs, sensor interfaces, data converters, and wireless system components.

With the advent of nanotechnology, new electronic devices and sensors will be available. Also today’s emerging applications involving bio-inspired systems and interfacing to biological systems are expected to play a much more important role in the future, which will clearly have an impact on R&D trends within AMS circuits.

An increased need for multidisciplinary knowledge among future students is expected due to, for example, the emerging application mentioned above. Hence, the selection of basic courses may change.

Furthermore, demand for ever decreasing design cycle time, and retargeting of AMS circuit blocks into other process technologies and variants, makes it necessary to develop efficient re-use methodologies for AMS functions.

Other important areas:

• Digitally assisted analog functions and background calibration: Scaling of digital functions will continue for each technology node. While AMS-functions will scale to much lesser extent because noise and matching considerations dictate larger component geometries. This will lead the way to new architectures where the balance between analog and digital functions is shifted even more towards the digital domain by use of digitally assisted analog functions.
• AMS design for test, DFT, and built in self testing, BIST: Analog and RF tests are time consuming and account for a large part of the test cost compared to the often small chip area occupied by AMS functions. To alleviate this problem it is necessary to develop new and efficient methodologies for built in self-test and design for test for AMS functions.
• Fault modeling of analog failures in digital and analog devices
• Lower signal voltage requires better resolution in time domain (jitter, phase noise): Power supply voltage today (2004) is already at the level of 1 Volt. This severely limits the obtainable signal to noise ratio of AMS functions on a complex SoC. Power supply voltage will continue to scale down and is expected to scale down to 0.3-0.4 Volt by year 2020. This will lead the way for new architectures, which process the signal with greater accuracy in the time domain. To achieve better time domain accuracy it is necessary to develop better and more accurate time references and oscillators for increased sampling accuracy of low-level analog signals.
• Noise and interference: Substrate coupling, inductive/capacitive coupling from interconnect.

The future development in microelectronics and MEMS process technology will cause parasitic phenomena and high frequency effects to become more marked. In order to exploit the inherent performance of a process technology, it will be necessary for the future designer to have a wide knowledge in fields ranging from physical phenomena like electromagnetism, device physics and modelling, to high level systems aspects like signal processing, modulation, communication and information theory. No single person could be expected to be an expert in all the relevant fields, but they should, at the very least, be capable of communication with experts in other fields.

Nanotechnology

It is interesting to note that the report Nanotechnology at NTNU 2003 specifically recommends focus on research to develop tools for nm-structuring of functional materials for use within spintronics and electromechanical MESA structures for future NEMS applications, nanoscale detectors and transducers. This fits well to the experimental activates at IME, e.g. Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, where there is a large activity within the fields of micro- and nanotechnology. A large part of the activity is centred on developing low-dimensional electronic materials for future use in nano-electronics and nano-electromechanical systems (NEMS) applications. There is also ongoing work towards RF-MEMS and sensor technologies. The research aims at becoming a foundation for novel application within information and communication technology.

Photonics

will continue to be an important area for some Norwegian companies. In particular, optical sensor technology is currently a strong field in Norway. There are several companies working in this field, in addition to the academic effort at NTNU. During the last years there has been an increasing activity in the field of medical applications of photonics and lasers. This trend is expected to continue. In addition it is expected that quantum phenomena in optics will be important during the next 10-20 years. To be a part of this progress, more emphasis on quantum effects should be incorporated in the educational program.

Radio systems

TRANSMITTERS

The transmitter in a system for communications or navigation is one of the most power-consuming parts.  In recent years, the drive for lighter and smaller units with more functionality has been pronounced.  This increases the challenges for the transmitter.  Properties like linearity, efficiency, bandwidth and power consumption in a transmitter chain are therefore increasingly important.  This trend will no doubt continue in the future.

One important trend in communications systems is the use of increasingly advanced modulation schemes.  This can clearly be seen when looking at the trend from “old” analogue systems (e.g. NMT, AMPS) to the digital systems (e.g. GSM) of today, and to the future systems (UMTS and beyond).  The use of advanced modulation techniques to transmit more information per unit of bandwidth requires improved linearity and efficiency of the transmitter.  The power amplifier is the main source of distortion and power consumption in a transmitter chain.  In the future, there will certainly be an increased focus on power amplifiers and transmitters [TARGET].

In future wireless systems, the flexibility of transmitters will be one of the keys to integrate different systems in one unit.  Today, GSM implements “tri-band” receivers and transmitters, which can switch between three different frequency bands.  In the future, the ability to implement several wireless systems like GSM, GPS, Bluetooth, UMTS and future systems in one unit will become even more important.  Reconfigurable transmitters, which have the ability to change their behaviour to match several different systems, will require less volume, weight and power than separate transmitters for each system. Reconfigurable transmitters can be achieved by electronically changing the behaviour of components by tuning or switching components in and out of operation.

RECEIVERS

There is a general trend in receiver development, which is assumed to continue for considerable time. A generic term often used is software radio. By this term, we mean receivers where some functions and a lot of parameters are controlled and can be changed by means of software, without any hardware modification. In order to exemplify this trend, receivers of satellite navigation systems are chosen below. In generic terms, there is little difference between receivers in navigation and communications, which justifies the exemplification.

A rough sketch of a typical receiver design looks as follows (in this order) and will certainly remain unchanged because of the laws of physics:

Antenna with preamplifier and filter(s), down-converter (to intermediate frequency), digitiser (i.e. A/D-converter), signal processors (including demodulation and filtering functions), control and computing processors, display(s).

The trend has long been to move digitisation towards higher frequencies, and this trend will no doubt continue as a consequence of improved synthesisers and faster A/D-converters, even if there may also be a rise in the number of quantisation levels. After digitisation of the signal(s), the only performance limits are the capacity of the processors and the software used.

There is no doubt that satellite navigation receivers will be able to utilise signals from all satellites above the horizon, regardless of whether they emanate from GALILEO, GLONASS or GPS satellites. The average consumer will buy navigation equipment based on the requirements of the application in question, without any consideration of the origin of the signals or the name of the satellite system(s).

If it is desirable to handle signals at very different carrier frequencies, the bottleneck of receiving equipment as sketched above will usually be the antenna and the RF front end. In order to maximise signal-to-noise ratios, it is generally advantageous to use multiple antennas, perhaps physically stacked on top of each other, instead of very wideband antennas. A similar principle can be used for the preamplifier and subsequent RF stages, i.e. several narrowband stages in parallel instead of one wideband channel. After the digitisation of the signals, however, all signals are canalized in the same manner. From this point of view, it is obvious that digitisation should be carried out as early as possible in the chain, and this has also been a trend for some years now.

Integration

A logical consequence of the ability of receivers to handle signals from different systems is integration. In this context, integration means combined and optimum use of information supplied by available systems in order to increase the performance of the integrated system beyond the level of the best participating system. With navigation as an example again, this means that position accuracies given by the integrated receiver using signals from GALILEO, GLONASS and GPS satellites at the same time are better than they would be if just one of the systems were used. Optimised use in this respect requires weighting of measurement results taking known (or at least expected) error characteristics into account.

Mobile telephones represent a striking example of integration of navigation and communications. This implies not only a physical but also a functional symbiosis. In some applications, i.e. emergency calls from indoor positions and automatic location, both functions depend on the other.

As to physical integration, the trend is towards “receiver-on-a-chip”. This means that miniaturisation can be brought forward from the (so far) usual partitioning between RF and IF-LF chips to one-chip solutions with dimensions in the order of some mm². In some of these applications, the problem of mutual interference through the chip itself, resulting in increased noise factors, has to be solved.

Integrity

With increasing use of electronic systems for so-called safety-of-life applications, e.g. aircraft landing and navigation of high-speed passenger craft in narrow waters, the ability of electronic systems onboard to check and report about their own performance must receive great attention. This ability is called integrity. Requirements of this kind also influence receiver design, and more attention will have to be paid to such functions in years to come, not only in navigation but also in other applications as e.g. timing and synchronisation.

COMPONENTS

RF CMOS technology

The operating frequency of components implemented in CMOS (Complementary Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor) process technology is steadily increasing. Currently, the technology is employed mainly for ISM (Industrial Scientific Medical) band radio transceivers for short-range communications, but attempts to employ this technology for mobile telephone and satellite-navigation transceiver building blocks are also being made. Published results have also demonstrated the performance of the technology for circuits operating at several tens of GHz. The authors of the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors [ITRS2003] predict that the choice of implementation technology in the future will be determined more by cost and performance requirements than by operating frequency.

The sensitivity and power consumption of CMOS radio receivers for the frequency range up to about 2 GHz may be improved in the future by use of MEMS (Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems) technology for high-Q micromechanical resonator filters and mechanically tuneable high-Q capacitors. The use of this kind of mechanical resonator filters may also facilitate a reduction of the chip area of tuned radio-frequency circuitry.

It is currently possible to integrate CMOS radio transceivers on the same chip as complex digital subsystems. Unfortunately, radio electronics and digital electronics have very different process requirements. Radio electronics relies on the use of integrated spiral inductors, which cannot be downsized. Digital electronics, on the other hand, can benefit directly from a downsizing of the minimum transistor feature size. As a consequence, it is possible that the current system integration will come to an end in the future, unless, of course, the very promising MEMS technology can be used as a replacement for spiral inductors.

Microwave component technology

At operating frequencies in the 1-100 GHz range, microwave components are usually implemented in gallium arsenide (GaAs).  GaAs is chemically in the III-V group.  There are several different implementations of components based on GaAs, e.g. AlGaAs and InGaP.  At frequencies above 40 GHz, other III-V materials like indium phosphide (InP) show good performance.  For high power densities there are several ‘new’ materials with very promising properties, such as GaN and SiC.

The use of new materials in RF front-end components will be important to achieve high linearity, high efficiency and low power consumption.

Components for high-performance radio electronics

Some of the current trends in high performance radio electronics include the development of reconfigurable or tunable systems and the development of components with smaller dimensions and higher power handling capability [Proc IEEE Feb 2004]. Reconfigurable systems can be implemented by means of MEMS switches. Ferroelectric materials with a voltage-dependent dielectric constant can be used for continuously tuneable systems with a wide frequency tuning range.

Transistors based on semiconductor materials with relatively high band gap energy can be used for the implementation of transistors with high operating temperatures. This could be employed for miniaturisation of power amplifiers. Another technology with high power handling capability is FBAR (Film Bulk Acoustic-Wave Resonator). This is a kind of devices based on stacked piezoelectric thin films that can be used for duplexers.

Ambient Intelligence is the modern label for a society where our electronic “gadgets” disappear more and more from visible sites, and blend into the ambience. In the book “The New Everyday – Views on Ambient Intelligence” [EASM03], edited by Emile Aarts and Stefano Marzano at Philips Research and Philips Design, we find visions for the next decade of pervasive digital technologies. “We may find ourselves living with almost invisible, intelligent interactive systems”. The book presents different technologies that need to be developed, but also a thorough discussion of what roles we want those technologies to play. How will we interact with them? –And how can we ensure that they improve the overall quality of our lives, rather than just improving efficiency? The book describes more than 20 projects, where experts in technology, design, social sciences and business work together to get a broad and deep understanding of the issues of convergence, integration, communication everywhere and at all times, and ubiquitous computing. Obviously, the realm of “Electronics” will play a key role in such projects, and we want to contribute to the development of new devices, sensors, actuators, transmitters and receivers, and speech and audio technology to implement such systems.

References

[ITRS03] International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors; website: http://public.itrs.net/

[TEF03] Teknisk Framsyn; report: ISBN 91-7082-658-7; website: http://www.tekniskframsyn.nu/,

[NNI04] The National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI); website: http://www.nano.gov/ . Also: NSTC/NSET Report: National Nanotechnology Initiative: The Initiative and its Implementation Plan

[EUNA04]http://www.cordis.lu/nanotechnology/src/era.htm

[SINT04] http://www.sintef.no/

[NAMA04] http://program.forskningsradet.no/nanomat/no/index.html?3568

References on acoustics:

[AES]     "Emerging technology trends in the areas of the technical committees of the audio engineering society, J. Audio. Eng. Soc. 51, pp. 442-451 (2003).

[ITU]      ITU-TE.800 (08/94), "Terms and definitions related to quality of service and network performance including dependability" (1994).

[EUNo03]     http://europa.eu.int/scadplus/leg/en/lvb/l21180.htm

[EASM03] E. Aarts and S. Marzano, “The New Everyday – Views on Ambient Intelligence”, 010 Publishers, Rotterdam, ISBN 90-6450-502-0.

References on receivers and transmitters:

Feng, M., Shen, S.-C., Caruth, D.C., Huang, J.-J.: ”Device Technologies for RF Front-End Circuits in Next-Generation Wireless Communications”. Proc. IEEE, February 2004, pp 354 – 375.

Akos, D.M., Ene, A., Thor, J.: “A prototyping platform for multifrequency GNSS receivers”. ION GPS/GNSS 2003, Portland, Oregon, USA, Sept. 2003.

Ståhlberg, C., Normark, P.-L.: “A hybrid GPS/GALILEO Open-Service Software Receiver Prototype”. Navconvention 2003, Geneva, Switzerland, June 2003.

Kadoyama, T. et al.: “A complete single-chip GPS receiver with 1.6-V 24-mW radio in 0.18-μm CMOS”. 2003 Symposium on VLSI Circuits. Kyoto, Japan, June 2003.

NoE - TARGET (Network of Excellence - Top Amplifier Research Groups in a European Team).

EC 6^th Framework Program, Contract IST-1-507893-NOE (www.target-net.org)

2 Computer architecture

The Future Needs New Computer Architectures. Contemporary leading processor architectures are extremely complex, resulting in huge development cost and a problematic power consumption. This has been caused by at least three factors:

• The well know processor-memory gap (also called the memory wall), which has given deeper and more complex memory hierarchies occupying more and more of the chip area and power consumption.
• The processors have used a broad range of smart, but often com­plex, solutions to hide this memory latency, and to exploit a maximum of the parallelism available in the instruction stream (instruction-level parallelism (ILP)).
• The tremendous development in semiconductor technology has made room for such complex solutions and large caches on the processor chips.
• To be able to continue offering improved performance in the future, beyond what can be given by ILP, multiprocessors and thread-level parallelism (TLP) must be exploited, especially in the area of throughput computing. This will give an increased interest in known and new ways of exploiting parallelism. The advances in technology are working against the memory wall problem, and the situation begs for new solutions. The combination of increased focus on parallelism and new memory solutions makes parallel computer architecture to an important topic in the future.

New Challenges in the HW/SW Interface -Rethink Compilers. Near future uni-and multiprocessors will exploit both ILP and TLP. We need a better understanding of its combination, and the future role of the compiler in this context. EPIC (Explicitly Parallel Instruction Computing) architectures exemplified by the Itanium Processor Family hand over more work to the compiler [22] and have fostered a renewed interest in compiler research [24]. The memory wall motivates for radically new solutions integrating computations with memory (e.g. computational RAM [5]), but also a renewed interest in older techniques such as SW prefetching etc. [1]. This may result in new languages or libraries for parallel programming [27], also implying focus on the HW/SW interface.

Portable and Efficient Parallel Programming will be Needed, but is Still Missing. ILP and TLP are old, conservative and precautious roads to parallelism. Till now, most programming models have followed one of two extremes: Either (a) designed for the programmer making it difficult for the compiler to exploit the HW, or (b) using explicit HW knowledge in language constructs and directives (pragmas) reducing programmer productivity and wrecking portability [27, 15]. Computer architects and researchers in programming languages and compiler design should cooperate to find new and portable ways to exploit the parallelism inherent in the applications.

Mastering the Complexity by Better Evaluation Methods and Tools. A major bottleneck in computer industry is mastering of the complexity in new designs. Evaluation methods and tools will continue to play an increasing role. Extensive simulations executed on HPC platforms will offer the designer powerful tools for design space exploration. Advanced solutions such as integrated performance monitors and HW per­formance counters will give new and better possibilities for performance studies focusing on the HW/SW interplay [27].

New Technology Gives New Solutions, but CMOS will Survive to Year 2020. The rapid advances in technology will make well established techniques less important (e.g. virtual memory). Reconfigurable HW makes radically new architectures possible. Quantum Computing is a hot topic that has attained a lot of positive press coverage, but some researchers have, based on fundamental physical arguments, stated that “for general-purpose computing, the classical computer will always perform much better than any possible quantum solution” [4]. CMOS works so well in rugged environments that we do not believe it will be replaced by “bioware” or quantum computing within the next 15 years [27].

Other Challenges to Future Computer Architecture. A major problem in the society of today is that computer systems are undependable and insecure [27, 21]. To improve fault tolerance and security we need more dependable HW but also new HW solutions and better HW/SW interfaces that help the SW designer
to design better systems.

3  Operating systems

When considering the future of operating systems, one of the first problems is defining exactly what the concept of an operating system encompasses. This is made increasingly difficult as the border between applications, operating system and hardware becomes ever more unclear. For example, the Palladium security technology planned for the next Windows family (codename Longhorn) relies on specific processor extensions, and traditional third-party tools such as firewalls and antivirus programs will soon become included with most major operating systems. A different, but equally important, concern is the nature of the hardware platform the OS is set to govern. The huge span from small embedded systems via traditional desktop computers to large supercomputers indicates that a discussion about general challenges for future operating systems is difficult. As operating system development is mostly driven by industry rather than research, the following discussion is more geared towards what we think will happen rather than what we would like to have.

To first address the future development of core technologies (process handling, storage management, I/O, etc) for traditional computers, several trends are apparent. First of all, the continued development of external devices requires the operating system to keep up. Key features in this respect is plug-and-play and self configuration. Another trend is improved support for large server architectures (as manifested by the new 2.6 kernel for Linux). As for file systems, the planned Windows Future Storage (WinFS) extension to the current NTFS represents an interesting merge of traditional file systems and database technology.

For commercial desktop operating systems, the user interface plays a vital role. Current developments show that improving usability and supporting new input and output devices will continue to be important areas. Tied to improving usability is the extension of the operating system to include extra services. Secu­rity issues (viruses, worms) and SPAM presents serious threats to current and future usability of computers and will have to be taken into account.

Light-weight operating systems can be expected to become much more commonplace within the next decade due to the increased use of non-traditional computers such as embedded systems, PDAs, TabletPCs, etc. These systems have a somewhat different set of requirements compared with traditional computers.

Key areas include wireless support, power saving, resource management, device control, real-time opera­tion and reliability.

For more details we refer to [12, 28, 29, 35].

4  Storage technologies, database systems, and data management

The future and development of data management will depend heavily on available storage technologies. Currently, temporary data is stored in volatile RAM, while persistent data is stored on hard disk. Addi­tionally, in applications with large data volumes some data is stored on tertiary storage like tape, CD, or DVD, and in the case of mobile devices, Flash memory is used. The future of non-volatile storage is hard to predict. For example, the death of tape storage has been announced repeatedly. Still, tape is heavily used, and capacity is increasing (for example, 1TB cartridges demonstrated in 2002, probably in market in a couple of years from now [25]). For many years now, variants of high-capacity random-access storage have been expected to be out on the market ”real soon”, but the development seems to take time. Examples of such technologies are IBM Millipede [18, 7] and Thin Film [30] which both should provide terabyte storage on a single chip. However, if these technologies make it to the market, the impact will be heavy:

• Everybody can afford to store enormous amounts of data. For example, much of the text now only available on the web can be stored on a small device, available to local search and mining. Large storage capacity also means that we do not have the same need for deleting data as before; we can more often store the complete history of all current and deleted data/files.
• Query execution, which is now quite mature and where now mostly incremental performance im­provements are done, will have new opportunities. The most important performance bottleneck now is disk arm movement, and algorithms and strategies have as the primary goal to reduce the im­pact of this bottleneck. If storage technologies with fast random access make it to the market, other algorithms and strategies can be more appropriate to utilize from the new technologies.
• Data transfer between the storage chips and the rest of the system can become an even larger bot­tleneck than today; more capacity on both system buses and external networks will be needed. The bandwidth of the new storage chips will also be an issue.
• Actually managing and searching the stored data will be a problem. The problem of searching in large amounts of data has traditionally been solved by indexing. If we expect storage capacity to increase at a much higher rate than storage bandwidth and processing (searching) capacity, new indexing techniques might be necessary. They will probably focus less on space efficiency than current techniques. It is possible that more queries have to be pre-computed and stored together with the data in order to benefit from the storage capacity.

The traditional ”core” database field has now reached a high level of maturity. Although database systems will continue to become faster, more reliable and more user-friendly, the real challenge in the coming years will be to make them more suitable for the next generation of applications [3]. More general means a broadening from databases to data management in a broader context. This includes, for example, mobile databases (which often are relatively small), but the real challenge is the management and access of the large amounts of distributed heterogeneous data available in one form or another on the WWW. The importance of interoperability will in this context continue to increase, partly solved by the use of XML as storage and transfer format (more and more business data are now stored in, use in 2004 estimated to 60% [34]) and the use of web services (already available) and the semantic web (if it succeeds).

It is also possible that the architecture of many database (and data management) systems in the future will be very different from current technologies. We will probably see heavy distribution, no fixed home location of data, and access based on authorization and roles. Many systems will be based on peer-to-peer-like architectures (it should be mentioned that such systems already exist in a primitive form: for example, a system like Kazaa already indexes 4600 TB of data in 600 million files, distributed between over 3 million users).

Reliability and availability might be achieved by replicated storage. However the problem of guaranteeing correct data has to be solved by different means. More and more data are stored over a long period of time. Data are eroding both physically and logically. No storage media holds data for ever. To avoid loss of data, programs for rewriting or transferring data to new media has to be established. Logical erosion is more subtle. Formats might change, however this is taken care of by the rewriting programs. Changing of terminology, interpretation, etc is more difficult. Data should be interpreted according to the time of registration. This means handling aging ontologies and historical data correctly.

5  Computer graphics and visualization

The science of computer graphics has evolved since the 1960s and a solid scientific and methodical base has now been established. Only recently, however, have sufficiently powerful computers at affordable prices been brought to the marketplace making it possible for researchers to better understand the data produced by their applications.

Convenient and intuitive interaction with virtual reality systems is an important challenge. It will in­creasingly be a demand for tools of interaction that are small in physical dimensions and that can respond to hand and body gestures, to eye movements, to voice and even maybe to facial expressions. Virtual envi­ronments of today are mostly restricted to visual expressions. Spatially correct sound is entering the scene. It is expected that smell and other sensations will be part of the future virtual environment. Especially two market segments will be goals for new development, namely the home market and the mobile platform market.

Many aspects of life will be influenced by the virtual reality technology. Only some examples can be mentioned. A very important application will be in education at all levels both for demonstration purposes and for training. Another aspect of the same nature employing the same methods and techniques is enter­tainment. The word edutainment is increasingly being accepted as a common denomination of these two applications. Virtual heritage is a similar application.

Virtual presence will make it possible to virtually be in the same room for instance for a meeting even if the participants are on different continents. Research is being conducted in universities. One may also envision that future television will be stereoscopic and immersive. Maybe the fashion catalogue will contain models that the customer may put on a model of her own body and then animate to get a very realistic impression how it will look.

Solutions of mathematical problems and complicated technical and scientific problems may be visual­ized in a virtual environment. Surgeons my train in virtual environments and perform remote operations using virtual reality techniques.

Among the basic research topics are methods for modeling and animation, parallelization, fast  photogrammetry and model synthesis, methods and tools for interaction as well as the physical equipment for virtual environments.

6  Supercomputing

Over the past decades supercomputing systems has evolved from having a focus on large dedicated vector machines like the Cray series of the early 90’s to large parallel distributed memory systems based on COTS (commercial of-the-shelf) parts using cluster technologies. The cluster-based systems are generally large groups of PC or workstation processor boards networked together over a local area network or switch. Currently, the ”Top 500 Supercomputers” list [31] is dominated by such machines. This trend is expected to continue for the next several years [2].

In addition, as previously predicted [9, 10], traditional HPC (high-performance computing) will prob­ably no longer drive processor technology. Instead, the consumer market – which focuses on the gaming and entertainment world – will have a even larger impact the processor market. This trend is already appar­ent with Intel’s February 2004 announcement of their new Pentium processor codenamed Prescott, which includes 13 new instructions several related to gaming and video [33, 23]. Supercomputing software and high-end library and compiler research will hence have to find new techniques to utilize these features, rather than new architectural features being driven by traditional supercomputing applications.

Another trend in supercomputing is the move towards GRID computing – the idea of providing com­puting power the way electricity is delivered: plug in your computer and run your application without regard to where the processing power and data storage may be located [11]. This requires break-through in inter-operability (incl. login, compilers, etc), security, as well as streamlining user policies across na­tional borders. Large companies such as Hewlett-Packard and IBM [17] are currently commercializing grid technologies.

Tighter coupling with visualization will become increasingly more important in order to make sense of the Petabytes of data streams generated in the future. See the visualization section for more details.

Finally cluster and GRID computing as well as high-end graphics are also evolving in the area of MMOGs (Massively Multi-player On-line Games) where thousands, and eventually millions, of players play games in a virtual world. E.g. Sony’s EverQuest has currently over 460 000 subscribers that are supported by a server farm each serving up to 2000 players simultaneously. [16]

7  Computer systems education in 2020

Education in studies related to computer systems in general aims at giving a broad introduction to the whole area during the first part of the study, with further specialization later. This is likely to be the case also in the future, with curriculum based on what is actual technology at the moment.

References

[1] 36th Annual International Symposium on Microarchitecture,
http://www.microarch.org/micro36/.

[2]  G. Bell and J. Gray. What’s next in high-performance computing? Communications of the ACM, 45(2), 2002.

[3] M. L. Brodie. Panel: Future Directions of Database Research -The VLDB Broadening Strategy, Part 2. In Proceedings of VLDB, 2000.

[4] Classical vs. quantum computers: And the winner is ...
http://www.newsfactor.com/perl/story/22109.html.

[5]  Computational RAM. http://www.eecg.toronto.edu/˜dunc/cram/.

[6]  D. Edenfeld. 2003 technology roadmap for semiconductors. IEEE Computer, 37(1), 2004.

[7]  E. Eleftheriou. A nanotechnology-based approach to data storage. In Proceedings of VLDB, 2003.

[8]  D. Elliott. Computational-RAM : The case for SIMD computing in memory. In Workshop on Mixing Logic and DRAM: Chips that Compute and Remember at ISCA ’97, June 1997.

[9]  A. C. Elster. High-performance computing: Past, present and future. In Proceedings of PARA 2002, 2002.

[10] A. C. Elster. The next level of simulations: Extreme computing. In SIMS 2002, http://ntsat.oulu.fi/Tapahtumat/SIMS_CallForPapers/1016a.pdf, 2002.

[11]  I. Foster. The grid: A new infrastructure for 21st century science”. Phyics Today, 55(2), 2002.

[12]  Future of operating systems: simplicity http://www.computerworld.com/softwaretopics/os/story/0,10801,77335,00.html.

[13] P. P. Gelsinger. Microprocessors for the new millenium: Challenges, oppotunities, and new frontiers. In Proceedings of the International Solid State Circuits Conferance, ISSCC, pages 22–25, 2001.

[14]  P. P. Gelsinger. Power play. Communications of the ACM, 45(6), 2002.

[15]  M. Goudreau. Portable and efficient parallel computing using the BSP model. IEEE Trans. on Computers, 48(7), 1999.

[16]  http://everquest.station.sony.com/about.jsp.

[17]  IBM Grid Computing home page http://www-1.ibm.com/grid/.

[18]  IBM Millipede, http://www.zurich.ibm.com/st/storage/millipede.htm.

[19]  International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors. Emerging Research Devices, 2003, http://public.itrs.net.

[20]  International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors. Executive Summary, 2003, http://public.itrs.net.

[21]  Jim Gray Touring Award Lecture. http://research.microsoft.com/˜Gray/talks/.

[22]  V. Kathail, S. Schlansker, and R. Rau. Compiling for EPIC architectures. Proc. of The IEEE, 89(11), 2001.

[23]  Intel’s Prescott, Intel’s Extreme Edition, and AMD’s Athlon 64 3400+, http://www.linuxhardware.org/features/04/02/02/1654234.shtml.

[24]  Open Research Compiler project. http://ipf-orc.sourceforge.net/.

[25]  J. P. Scheible. A survey of storage options. IEEE Computer, 35(12), 2002.

[26]  Technology roadmap for nanoelectronics (microelectronics advanced research initiative), 1999 http://www.cordis.lu/esprit/src/melna-rm.htm.

[27]  The Future of Computer Architecture Research, Panel, ISCA-2003. http://www.comparch.ncsu.edu/future/.

[28]  The inevitable future of our operating systems -part 1 http://www.thetechlounge.com/article.php?directory=os_future.

[29]  The Microsoft future according to Bill Gates, http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/33384.html.

[30]  Thin Film, http://www.thinfilm.se/.

[31]  Top 500 supercomputers http://www.top500.org.

[32]  A. M. Tyrell, P. C. Haddow, and J. Tørresen, editors. Evolvable Systems: From Biology to Hardware. Fifth Int. Conf., ICES 2003, volume 2606 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Springer, 2003.

[33]  O. Valmot. Lynraske prosessorer. Teknisk Ukeblad, (7), 2004.

[34]  S. J. Vaughan-Nichols. XML raises concerns as it gains prominence. IEEE Computer, 36(5), 2003.

[35]  Windows ”Longhorn” Activity Center, http://www.winsupersite.com/longhorn/.

- Information Security and Safety
- Information Systems
- Language Technology
- Learning with ICT

Information Security and Safety

System dependability and the future - INFOSAM2020

“Where a calculator like the ENIAC today is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacum tubes and perhaps weigh only 1,5 tons.”

---Popular Mechanics, March 1949, p. 258

1. Introduction

This paper discusses the trends expected with respect to system dependability towards 2020. System dependability is trying to answer an important question, namely: "how can we make the computer systems and communication networks that we increasingly rely on more dependable?" Our lives have become critically dependent on the correct operation of these systems as we surf the web, fly in airplanes, drive our cars, manage our finances, and even heat our homes. The traditional concerns of the dependability community (e.g., inadvertent faults, errors, and failures) have now been enlarged by the massive connectivity provided by the Internet to include malicious exploitation of imperfect systems and networks, and intentional cyber-attacks on them. How can we build systems that are not vulnerable to such threats, systems that users can depend upon in transportation, financial, and e-commerce sectors?

It is said that it is easy to be overoptimistic with what you can obtain in two years, but you normally underestimate the amount of changes that will occur in a ten year period. Trying to draw up the trends towards year 2020 will therefore be an extremely uncertain prediction, although, some trends can be observed. From history we know that things develop “linearly” for some time, and is then influenced by disrupt changes, due to new inventions, new technology and new markets

Dependability is the extent to which a (often critical) system is trusted by its users. By a dependable system we usually mean a system that has at least some of the characteristics reliability/availability, security, safety, robustness etc. We therefore start with a short description of what we mean by these terms.

2. Safety and security - what is it?

By  a safe system we mean a system that can perform its intended function without failures that might lead to dangerous or catastrophic situations. Safety is concerned with ensuring that the system cannot cause damage irrespective of whether it conforms to its specification. By security we mean the ability of a system to protect information against unauthorised access and intentional misuse. Security includes characteristics such as authentication, authorisation, confidentiality, integrity, privacy, non-repudiation and availability. Information is an asset which, like other important business assets, has value to an organization and consequently needs to be suitably protected. Information security protects information from a wide range of threats in order to ensure business continuity, minimize business damage and maximize return on investments and business opportunities.

Security is an essential prerequisite for reliability, availability and safety, and thus also dependability.

3. Some economical, political and technological trends

It is expected that the economic growth will continue in the Western World throughout the period, and that that the trend towards deregulation and privacy will continue. People will have more spare time and will spend more time on travel, health care etc. There will also be a pressure for increasing productivity, and for shorter development times. Increased efficiency.

We will experience an increase in the terror threat towards computer intensive systems as these get more and more important for the modern societies.

Globalisation: more and more software and hardware will be developed in low cost countries such as India and China. The same will apply to Computer Operations Centres and Research as well as many office based services [1].

4. Some expected trends related to safety

Safety has for a long time been considered seriously and carefully within many traditional industries such as process control, oil and gas production, transport systems such as railways, and airplanes, and nuclear power plants. The systems were safe because technology developed slowly, and one could learn from near accidents and accidents. During the last 10-20 years computers and software has taken over more and more for electromechanical devices (such as relays and servos) and hydraulics. Traditionally, special computer hardware has been used in such applications. The software development has been very burdensome with focus on well-behaved software development processes, extensive testing and validation. The ongoing trend within these industries is that general purpose cheap processor chips are used more and more, and we see an increased use of COTS (i.e. using standard operating systems such as Windows XP and Unix) is forced in use mainly for reducing development times and costs. We also see that the systems are being more and more distributed, often over public communication networks such as Internet. Examples of this is “Remote Oil Production” where more and more of the offshore installations are being operated from onshore via complex/multifunction communication networks. It is also a trend towards interoperability – systems that are operated in close cooperation. We also see that propulsion and control systems onboard large marine vessels are developed for being operated by 40-50 crew in order to be safe enough, while modern ships mostly are manned with less than 10 crewmembers.

The use of computers and software is rapidly increasing within industries such as automotive and medical device industry. These industries have a little tradition for thinking safety related to computers and software and are much less mature than for instance the aircraft industry.

Traditional industries have to learn how to utilize modern technology to increase the efficiency without reducing the safety. The systems get more complex due to the flexibility to develop functionality through software and because several systems are integrated and due to distribution of components geographically and network-wise. In [4] Charles Perrow , argues that the conventional engineering approach to ensuring safety--building in more warnings and safeguards--fails in complex systems because systems complexity makes failures inevitable. He asserts that typical precautions, by adding to complexity, may create new categories of accidents. He further argues that new safety analysis methods have to be developed in order to manage increasing complexity and increasing speed in technology evolution.

Typical questions are:

-         How to assess safety of complex distributed systems?

-         Can the uncertainty related to use of COTS and software of uncertain origin in such systems be solved by redundancy and diversity. How can we assess the diversity of COTS hardware and software? As more and more components are developed in low cost countries, how can we be sure that the integrated system is safe even if each component has high quality?

-         How complex systems are we able to assess for safety? (Top Issue).

-         What are the impacts on human computer interfaces related to safety for such systems?

-         How to obtain safe communication over the Internet? Can we be sure that the responsde time is short enough? Are we sure the messages will reach the receiver fast enough and with integrity?

5. Some expected trends related to security

[2] has some interesting reflections:

-         There will be a worldwide broadband network based on fiber optics, communication satellites, cellular and microwave. Face-to-face, voice to-voice, person-to-data and data-to-data communication will be available to any place at any time from anywhere

-         Ubiquitous availability of computers will facilitate automated control and make continuous performance monitoring and evaluation of physical systems routine

-         Our homes will be integrated systems, smart and smarter integrated houses, and plugging into the communications network

[3] says that:

-         Emerging core computing technologies (e.g. Quantum cryptography, nanotechnologies, hybrid inorganic/biology computing) will not disrupt general-purpose, semiconductor based computing through 2010. It is expected that the introduction of quantum computing will disrupt the evolution of cryptography (with probability 0.6).

-         At the same time as general-purpose computers in the world are interconnected via the Internet billions of miniature intelligent devices already inhabit the world, with their number increasing faster than the human population. The next ten years will bring new capabilities: a) many physical objects will be coded and therefore will become uniquely identifiable, b) intelligent devices will be embedded in many physical objects, and will be networked via the (mostly) wireless Internet. Gartner calls this the “Supranet”

-          In the next ten years, a single, advanced integrated IP network will be handling the majority of the world’s communications needs. This converged, broadband, intelligent network will extend well beyond voice and data, local and long distance, supporting an ever-widening array of services, and blurring distinctions among networking, computing and applications. Driven by e-business requirements and facilitated by technological advances such as e-switching and next-generation satellites, the increasing externalization of networking will give rise to an environment where applications, content and data reside in the network and are dynamically handled by network service providers in real time, without user intervention.

-         Content is the core of business transactions, publishing and entertainment. The diversity, volume and effect of content will grow such that during the next 10 years, we will experience unprecedented levels of interactive content, driving valuable revenue streams for publishers, corporations and media companies. Content will be accessible almost anywhere via broadband and CDNs. The effects of this will stretch from the corporation into the home, as rich media content will be stored and managed in a digital asset management system. High-value content will have to be delivered securely. In the enterprise, the ongoing digitization of more and more information, including document authorization, will ease in fully digital process management for more and more business processes.

-         Mobility represents the next major business and technical discontinuity facing large enterprises. While the PC and Internet revolutionized communications systems, mobility will revolutionize information flow that will affect business users, customers and partners. By the year 2007 more than 60 % of the EU and US population aged 15 to 50 will carry or wear a wireless computing and communications device for at least six hours a day, by 2010 this is expected to be more than 75 %. By 2010, less than 5 percent of global wireless subscribers will be using true 4G technology (0.6 probability), but 15 percent will be using components of a full 3G architecture based on LAN/WAN integration and IP applications (0.7 probability).

Gartner [5]uses a so-called Hype Cycle Graph to illustrate how new and promising technologies goes through various phases of development. The following curve shows Gartner’s curve (from 2002) for ICT related technologies. It shows the typical progression of a technology from overenthusiasm through a period of disillusionment (because of the inevitable failures arising from inappropriate application), to an eventual understanding of the technology’s relevance and role.

A similar graph from 2003 is shown below:

Gartner has also presented a Hype Cycle graph for Identity and Authentication related technologies. It is from 2003 and presented below:

The figure on the following page shows the relations between threats, threats agents, assets and vulnerabilities and safeguards as seen from the ISO17799 [7].

By 2020 we may see a scenario like this:

-         A larger amount of the world’s information assets will be digitized and access able via the Internet.

-         Internet traffic will increase enormously and most human beings in the Western world will have continuous and direct access to Internet, mostly via wireless communication devices.

-         Criminals and terrorists will have at least the same access to Internet as most people. They will be better educated, more sly and will have the newest technology available. Example: On a tour on a large passenger vessel in the Oslo Fjord it turned out to be possible to get control of the ships machinery from a passenger laptop with wireless communication in the vessel’s conference room.

-         The amount of computer crime and possibly terrorism will increase significantly. Statistics from CSI/FBI shows that incidents have nearly doubled each year in the period 1997-1999. This is expected to continue. The police need to have access to and measures to avoid and investigate crime and terrorism in the Cyberspace in the same way as in the public space today (cyberspace forensics). 

-         More and more of the information stored and transported via the Internet will be of significant value to individuals, organisations and nations. Use of the Internet for communication related to safety applications will increase significantly.

-         More information has to be encrypted in order to protect sensitive information both while stored and while transported, but emerging computing technologies such as quantum computing may make contemporary encryption algorithms infeasible.

-         Biometric access technologies will dominate authorisation and authentication

So what are the main questions we have to face:

-         Research on better and new types of encryption technologies

-         Develop better risk analysis methods to better understand and manage the real risks in a more complex setting

-         Research on more reliable software development methods.

-         How to back-up enormous amounts of data distributed across the Cyberspace.

-         Which impact will the introduction of RFid have?

-         Research on how safety critical systems should act when disconnected from partnering systems – transmission of “plan ahead safe states”.

References and Background literature

[1]       Dagens Næringsliv, 3-4 April 2004, p. 33m

[2]        J.F. Coates, J.B. Mahaffie, A. Hines, in “Scenaries of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology, 2025”

[3]        Gartner Group, “Emerging trends and Technologies scenario, 2003”

[4]        Charles Perrow, “Normal Accidents” (1999)

[5]        DNV Research: Technology Outlook 2003 – DNV Research’s assessment of development trends, DNV 2003.

[6]        Gartner Symposium ITXPO 2002

[7]        ISO17799: Information Security, 2003

[8]        Rebecca T. Mercuri, Security Watch: Superscaled Security, Comm. of the ACM, March 2004/Vol. 47, No. 3, p. 15.

Acknowledgements

Stig Frode Mjølsnes (NTNU) has been a valuable discussion partner during the production of the first draft of this paper and giving comments to the first draft. Useful comments and improvement proposals have been supplied by the following individuals: Tor Stålhane (NTNU), Siv Hilde Houmb (NTNU), Lars Bratthall (DNV Research), and Jan Hovden (NTNU).

Information Systems

Jon Atle Gulla, Ingunn Amdal, Monica Divitini, Helge Langseth, and Hallvard Trætteberg

Information systems deal with information-processing software systems that help users carry out tasks by providing relevant information and computational support.  They generate, manipulate, analyze and store both structured and unstructured data, and their functionality automates, controls, monitors, or supports the tasks at hand. Central to the information systems area is the inter-dependence of software, humans and various artefacts. This complex mixture of technological and human resources is today crucial in many domains, and information systems integrate and apply more specialized technologies to meet individual or organizational needs.

Information systems include prescriptive and empirical methods and approaches for developing and analyzing both software systems in isolation and the wider concept of information systems. The area includes sophisticated user-computer interfaces, methods for mining, retrieving and managing information, support for collaboration and coordination among computers and people, adaptations to individual and organizational needs, mobile and distributed systems, knowledge discovery and management, and architectural and design considerations. Indirectly, their impact on social and legal structures, as well as related ethical issues, also falls within the study of information systems.

The information systems area is characterized by a wide range of research fields, and there are few of today’s research topics that will survive the next decades. There are however trends and tendencies in this area that span several research fields and are likely to dominate both research and industry the next 20 years. The following trends are of particular importance:

• Interaction – body and environment
• Intelligent support
• Universal personalized services
• Ubiquitous computing
• Networked communities and social implications
• Emerging development processes

Each of them is discussed below.

1. Interaction – Body and Environment

With multi-modal interaction we refer to multiple input and output modalities as well as multiple “terminals”.  The most common output modalities today are screen (text, graphics, and video) and audio. Rapid development in display technology and speech technology will result in a more diverse set of output modalities in the future. An important aspect for future output is the presentation of information to non-experts (e.g. medical information directly to the user not through physicians). Typical input devices (controlled by user, i.e. not a sensor) today are keyboard and various pointing devices (buttons, mouse, and stylus). Speech is an obvious additional modality that is becoming more important as the technology improves. The same is also the case for eye tracking, gesture tracking, biometrics, etc.

Sensor technology today includes devices for GPS, temperature, humidity, light, etc. We will see a rapid development in especially medical and military sensors. As sensor technology improves, they will be a natural input/output modality for information systems.

The terminals as we know them will probably be on the museum in 2020. All items will have sensors, and computers will be everywhere (“disappearing computers” (ISTAG 2004)).  With wearable computing the sensors may track human condition and behavior (when you enter a zone – indoors or outdoors, biosensors) and be an integral part input and output devices.

The next 20 years we expect substantial development in sensor technology, speech technology, displays, and audio/video research. Speech technology will improve (at least languages with enough funding, small languages like Norwegian will need special care) and can be taken into account (see Language Technology position paper).

Whereas we today have mostly one interface per sensor or input device, the future will bring us interfaces that combine information from several sensors and input modalities. Essential concepts here are fusion, fission and dialogue management. As interfaces get more complicated the human centered design gets more important to let the user be in control of the interaction. Ideas from human-human-interaction will find their ways into human-computer interaction, though there are situations in which humans may want computers to behave differently from humans.

Many of these input technologies and sensors have an inherent uncertainty (speech recognition errors, the interpretation of a medical sensor regarding a specific human condition, noise in transmission, etc.). This calls for context-based interaction (intelligent dialogue), where we allow delayed decisions using probabilities and models from the different modalities as well as dialogue histories and user preferences. Fusion and fission will be more complex, and for a user friendly interaction the semantics of the input/output should be coordinated with the semantics of the information providing part of the system. The system must be able to detect and repair misunderstandings.

2. Intelligent Support

There is a class of intelligent systems that makes use of published data to analyze issues, help users solve problems or come up with recommendations.  The quality of these systems grows as more data is added, provided that the system has the technology needed to deal with the data made available to it.  Except from document management systems, this class also includes many learning systems, expert systems, and even tools for finding and using web services.

Tools for analyzing structured and numerical data are available today.  As more data is added to these systems, the tools come up with more precise and more reliable analyses that help the users understand the issues and make decisions. For unstructured data, like text documents or images, the situation is however somewhat different.  Methods for information retrieval, information extraction, text mining, and categorization and clustering have been introduced the last few years, though there are still fundamental problems in this area.  The methods make use of statistical approaches like normalized word frequencies and simple morphological information about words to analyze document content. These methods address syntactic aspects of the data and does not go into the semantic logical part.  Semantic approaches are still not reliable enough, and the processing limitations prevent the methods from being employed in many information management and learning systems. 

The next 20 years will see huge amounts of data being published and information systems that are far better integrated than today.  With this plethora of data, the potential of these intelligent systems will rise dramatically (PC Magazine 2003).  At the same time, both processing capacity and semantic analysis methods will improve to the extent that the systems can start dealing with the semantics of this data rather than various statistical and morphological aspects.  Methods and approaches from linguistics, statistics, and logic will be tightly integrated and used on-the-fly to help users find and interpret the information they need.

As envisioned by the Semantic Web initiative (W3C 2004b), the systems of the future will distinguish between the documents or services themselves and knowledge about these representations.  Since all documents, services, rules or records are given formal logical definitions, the systems can answer questions directly rather than just pointing the user to sites that may have the information they need. The systems can combine data from different sources by reasoning about the different semantic representations.  They can also cooperate on an ad-hoc basis and make deductions about the result from analyzing the semantic description of each system.  Every time a new document, service or rule is added, the system has access to another piece of knowledge that will improve the system’s ability to provide the user with intelligent support.

Structured domain knowledge in the form of ontologies and models will be important to interpret the data in the right context. There will be large domain ontologies available, but they will also build ontologies for individual or more specialized use. The users may maintain their own ontologies that reflect their experiences, interests, and preferences. The same data may mean different things to different users in different contexts, and the use of these ontological representations make sure that the available and sometimes fragmented and ambiguous data is meaningful and relevant to the users. Ontologies will also allow the user to specify only what he wants to achieve and let the system be responsible for figuring out how to do it by retrieving and combining the necessary data and services.

3. Universal Personalized Services

Through continuous interaction with computerized systems, human users will bit by bit release information about their interests and preferences. They leave traces that can be collected and used to assess their past behavior. By collecting and analyzing these bits of information, automated systems (intelligent artificial agents) will help to find relevant information, carry out the appropriate transactions, and provide a computer-supported environment that is tailored to the individual user.  This development brings (at least) two technologies forwards:

·         Personalization

·         Decision support systems

Both these technologies are already finding their commercial niches today. First-generation personalization systems built on techniques like collaborative filtering, clustering, and classification algorithms can be found on the internet. Limited decision support systems (a.k.a. expert systems) have also emerged, and are today capable of automating relatively simple decision making in limited domains. Examples include screening of medical images, classification of spam-mail, troubleshooting of electronic systems, etc.

Emerging technologies related to data warehousing and data mining make distributed learning and decision support available. In the near future these technologies will be more integrated in everyday life.  Information overflow through digital television and an increasingly voluminous internet makes filtering and personalization of the available information important. Smaller and cheaper computer systems make decision support systems available everywhere. Venetian blinds with built-in intelligence and t-shirts with an opinion on which other clothing it prefers to be washed together with are but two examples.

4. Ubiquitous Computing

When Apple Research did a study on the future of computing, they tried to analyze how people in the future will carry out their tasks, which tools they will use, and how they will use them.  They came up with a new concept, ubiquitous computing, that describes the way users, their tools and network resources will be working together:

"The Concept of computers as things that you walk up to, sit in front of and turn on will go away. In fact, our goal is to make the computer disappear. We are moving towards a model we think of as a 'personal information cloud'. That cloud has already begun to coalesce in the form of the Internet. The Internet is the big event of the decade [...]. We'll spend the next 10 years making the Net work as it should, making it ubiquitous."

- Frank Casanova, director of Apple Computer Inc.'s Advanced Prototyping Lab

The underlying goal is to move computers away from the user’s attention, where they are applied subconsciously and embedded in many small and highly specialized devices within our continuously changing environment. This vision of ubiquitous computing has been around for a while, but it is only now starting to take shape. Ubiquitous technology is a new computational paradigm that is important to embrace for assuring the widespread adoption of IS in the society. We envision that in the next decade ubiquitous applications will get out of research laboratories and into everyday life of people. This is made possible by a growing interest of the industry in these applications and in the advances at the level of connectivity. However we expect this adoption to be problematic for some years to come because of limitations in the technology, hardware and running costs, but also and foremost for the worries of the general public around these technologies. This will force the developers of these applications to take seriously into consideration the social and ethical implications that the developed technology brings along.

Ubiquitous computing has implications for research fields like

• software architectures,
• computer-supported cooperation,
• interaction design, and
• multimodality

5. Networked Communities and Social Implications

The European Union is actively working with its research funding programs to bring, within 2010, “IST [Information Society Technologies] applications and services to everyone, every home, every school and to all businesses.” Even if this objective can be reached until 2010, we expect that the consequences at the societal level will take much longer to be fully visible. In the nineties the Web has allowed the emerging of web based communities. At the beginning of the millennium we are witnessing the emergence of new forms of social aggregation, called by someone “social mobs”, supported by widespread usage of mobile technologies. We can expect that pervasive usage of IS better integrated into everyday life of people will lead to different social communities, probably more ad-hoc and volatile. These new forms of aggregation, bypassing traditional forms of governance and control, are promoting new and richer forms of participation and, potentially a more democratic participation of individuals to community life.  Everybody is online most of the time (we are only offline when we choose to be), both in private and professional life, and we are part of numerous networked communities within which we communicate and coordinate our activities.

If on one side the widespread of IS can lead to a more democratic society, on the other it also brings the risk to more control on citizens and lack of privacy. We expect that the next fifteen years will be largely characterized by the struggle between these opposites and the consequent definition and continuous revision of different policies:

• Communities will support local democracy through the spread of relevant information and gathering of opinions. Networked interest groups will be formed to fight for particular issues (which both may strengthen and weaken democracies). Different groups of the population will be strengthened and weakened by the move to online democracy, e.g. education, economy and accessibility will affect how online you are.
• Our constant use of networked communication devices will leave electronic traces all over the place. A complete trace will reveal a lot about our private life, and care must be taken to protect our privacy and avoid intrusion, like spam and little brother surveillance. End-users must be able to understand and control how information about themselves spreads in the network. At the same time, both the citizens and institutions must be protected against network-based criminal activities, like identity theft, electronic trespassing and illegal spreading of protected information, through both technical and legal mechanisms (like coordination of national and international standards and laws).

Also from a legal point of view different challenges are arising. It is interesting for example to remind here the discussion about the distribution of legal responsibility connected to the exchange of copyrighted music shared over the net thanks to peer-to-peer infrastructure, or about the collection of an unprecedented quantity of individual data for different reasons, ranging from medical record to terrorism prevention. The sensitive nature of this information arises a set of issues related to security and ethical usage and sharing. We expect these issues to be only the top of the iceberg, with the full scale of the problem visible in the ten or fifteen years.

The adoption of Information Systems by new users will bring along a new set of requirements:

• “Design for all” has been a recurrent slogan for the last decade. In the next decade this has to become common practice.
• More flexible systems that are able to evolve with their users, but also be flexible enough to adapt to usages different than expected
• Clearer distinction between inscripted behavior and policies 

From a process point of view this requires more interdisciplinary work and more awareness in the design team of the social, legal, and ethical implications of their systems.  We also need to pay more attention to emerging patterns of usage. For example, SMS and chat started as tools for teenagers and are now getting into the workplace. We believe that the introduction of the technology in different environments will bring new patterns of usage that can possibly be adopted in other contexts, with a positive contamination between different sectors. Adoption must be based on acceptance and consensus, which will dramatically change the marketing and deployment strategy of IS.

6. Emerging Development Processes

Most large IS development projects take more time and cost more than expected, and often still do not satisfy their users. This highlights two issues that developers are struggling with: 1) Understanding their

users, their environment and what they really need, and 2) controlling the process of gaining this understanding and developing the relevant technology. Apart from reducing development time and costs, the focus the next 20 years will be on making development projects more predictable, flexible and less vulnerable.

The major trend will be to reduce the size of each project, evolve rather than revolve by support continuing change rather than major overhauls. The relationship between the customer and developer will change into closer cooperation, with more shared learning and reduced risk. The customer will not want to rely on only one developer organisation, so the process must be open, have smaller steps and be easier to change.

Systems will be based on open standards, not just for infrastructure and middleware, but also for vertical components established by specific segments. Component-based development will have matured to the point that systems development implies less programming and more configuration of standard and generic components. In some sense, every system will already exist, it will just be a matter of describing the needs and perform the necessary customization. The customers can take care of most of their own needs through visual composition of functionality and scripting.

To be able to continuously evolve and migrate systems, systems will be self-contained and self-describing (no difference between system and documentation) using executable models of function and design. Since systems will be transparent, developers know what to modify to achieve a certain effect, they can verify the consequences of the changes (ripple-effect). New methods for model integration and migration will support gradually changing running systems.

As many important "mainstream" technical problems have been solved, there will be less emphasis on making new technologies feasible and more on understanding, describing and fulfilling end-users' needs. The developers will need to switch roles between viewing technology as a system and seeing it through the eyes of its users. This kind of "stereo sight" will become even more essential in the years to come as no single perspective on technology, society and design alone is sufficient.

7. Challenges in Education and Research

The anticipated development of this field requires strong multi-disciplinary approaches combined with deep specialist knowledge.  The educational paradigm should be related to how students can learn to work with people of different backgrounds while contributing with their particular competences. This is more important than teaching each student fractions of several disciplines.

The need for switching roles between viewing technology as a system and seeing it through the eyes of its users, requires a new generation of computer science professionals and researchers with a training in technology supplemented with courses from the social sciences, design, marketing and psychology. The focus of research at the same time must move from studying technology de-contextualized in the lab to also studying it "in the wild".

Strong analytical and theoretical skills are needed to push the technology forward and take full advantage of the technological basis is established.  This also means that education has to be regarded as a continuous activity that has to be encouraged by employers and society at large.

A cooperative and open approach to the development and use of information systems poses new challenges to education and research. On the one hand, we need to adhere more to standards and be more efficient in applying reusable or generic software rather than developing it ourselves. On the other hand, projects will be more loosely organized, and we need to learn how to organize our work at an individual basis and get accustomed to more ad-hoc ways of cooperating with other people.

Finally, we need to encourage creativity.  Whereas we in the past have improved the technology by imitating and automating manual approaches, we will soon be in a position to do things that we could never imagine before.  We need to stimulate innovation and creativity both in education and research.

References:

Horn, P. (2000). The Future of Information Technology, IBM Research. [http://www.cs.colorado.edu/events/lectures/horn/horn.pdf]

ISTAG (2004) Information Society Technology Advisory Group in EU. [http://www.cordis.lu/ist/istag.htm]

ISWC (2003) IEEE International Symposium on Wearable Computers. [http://www.cc.gatech.edu/ccg/iswc03/]

ELSNET (2004) The Human Language Technologies roadmap. [http://elsnet.dfki.de/].

PC Magazine (2003).  20 Hot Technologies to Watch, July 1 2003. [http://www.pcmag.com/print_article/0,3048,a=43573,00.asp].

Rheingold, H. (2002) Smart Mobs: The Next Social Revolution; Perseus Books.

W3C (2004a) Multimodal Interaction Activity. [http://www.w3.org/2002/mmi/].

W3C (2004b). Semantic Web. [http://www.w3.org/2001/sw/].

Weiser, M. (1991) The Computer for the 21st Century, Scientific American:September 1991, pp 933-940. [http://www.ubiq.com/hypertext/weiser/SciAmDraft3.html]

Language Technology

1. What is Language Technology?

A broad definition of language technology could be the branch of information technology which deals with natural language information. This information is typically conveyed in two forms – written or spoken. For this reason we might define two main branches of language technology: speech technology and textual language technology, although the latter is integrated in many speech applications. Today we find language technology in many products – spell checkers and grammar checkers in standard office suites, word prediction in cellular phones, dialogue systems between humans and machines (for instance automatic reservation via telephone), rough machine translation in internet browsers, automatic dictation (conversion of speech to text). These technologies have evolved into commercial products over the last 10 to 20 years. In the years to come we expect applications like search in speech databases (e.g. radio programs), automatic transcription of colloquial speech and TV programs, among others.

2. Textual Language Technology

The total amount of available text for all purposes increases extremely rapidly. Text production is to an increasingly larger extent required for documentation purposes – in businesses as well as in governmental domains, for instance within the European Union. Various aids for text production have come to the market in the last 15 years, in particular text processing tools with “enabling” facilities like spelling and grammar checkers. Automatic dictation systems (speech converted to text) are expected to be improved in the years to come, both due to improved hardware and language resources, at least for the language societies which give priority to use of native languages in technological environments. Thus the possibilities for producing text becomes better and better.

            This state of affairs leads to the well-known problem of sorting out relevant information for some particular task from the huge amount of irrelevant information, or get rid of relevant information of bad quality. This problem is of course closely tied to the content of documents in the searching domain. Content analysis thus becomes increasingly more important in the areas of information management and so-called data mining. Content extraction based on more or less simple word count is the current state of the art – words are counted and often compared to normal word distributions, and unexpected distributions will in general give reasonably good clues to document content, albeit that the precision can be much better in theory if reliable information about documents can be used to classify them, cf initiatives within work on so-called semantic web. The problem for the word count approach is basically computational power when the amount of text is huge, for instance the entire world wide web. Given Moores law[[10]] we can expect that conventional indexing can be performed on ordinary PCs some years ahead from now, but more extensive content analysis algorithms can also be put to use, for example document indexing based on hierarchical semantic or logical structure. Resources like WordNet[[11]] and EuroWordnet[[12]] are important in this context. Entire document collections can be parsed and assigned sophisticated semantic content labels, and we can imagine search engines being able to perform logical deductions over their own updated formal models of the real world, as it manifests itself in written sources.

            There are, however, multilingual aspects involved here which are difficult to handle today. Relevant documents might exist in different languages. Queries should thus be translated to other languages if desired by the users, and relevant information in other languages should ideally be translated into the user’s preferred language, perhaps as translated summaries if desired. These ideas are by no means novel – they have been quite clearly formulated in research projects, most notably within the EU. But results are poor, so far. High quality products of this type do not exist, and the best commercially available translation system is good old Systran[[13]] initiated in the early sixties. Unfortunately, the languages available for automatic translation do not include e.g. Norwegian. But the emergence of statistical methods in machine translation paves the way for robust translation between Norwegian and other languages, provided that manually aligned bilingual text corpora are made available for research and industry.

            15 years ahead we foresee that industry and consumer markets will expect that textual applications like the ones hinted at above will be available with Norwegian language as a naturally integrated part. Research within language technology in Norway should give priority to development of formal and in particular statistical methods in textual analysis, both with respect to information management and automatic translation. Another extremely important aspect is creation of language resources for research and application development, which most naturally appears to be a task for the government, see conclusions in the report Norwegian Language Bank[[14]].

3. Spoken language technology

Twenty years ago, automatic speech recognition was basically treated as a signal processing problem whilst text-to-speech synthesis was very much rule-oriented, based on expert linguistic and acoustic-phonetic knowledge. During the past two decades, paradigm shifts in the technology and a move to much more complex task domains have lead spoken language technology to become a multi-disciplinary research area where insights from fields like linguistics, statistics, acoustics, phonetics, computer science and signal processing are required in order to adequately address problems involved with enabling computers to understand and produce natural spoken language. Continued progress in spoken language technology will depend on exploitation of all available, relevant knowledge sources, making close cross-disciplinary collaboration a necessity.

The past two decades have witnessed a convergence of the methodologies employed for solving the various problems in speech processing to an extent that today, data-driven statistical modeling techniques constitute the backbone of both systems for recognizing and understanding speech, as well as for production of speech from texts or concepts. This development is expected to continue, and will facilitate better interaction and utilization of knowledge between the different application areas. 

The development of the core technologies of automatic speech recognition (ASR) and text-to-speech synthesis (TTS) will to a great extent govern the evolution of speech enabled systems such as conversational user interfaces, spoken dialogue information systems and multi-modal user interfaces which integrate core speech technologies with e.g. natural language understanding, decision support, data mining etc. Although substantial improvement in the performance of the core technologies are to be expected, it is doubtful whether it will be possible to design systems that are close to human performance outside narrow application domains. HAL 9000, the intelligent computer in the movie 2001 A Space Oddysey, will be at least a few decades delayed.

In ASR major obstacles that need to be overcome mainly concern various aspects of robustness. These aspects include on the acoustical level sensitivity to ambient and electrical noise and variations on voice characteristics, on the lexical level variation in speaking rate and style and pronunciation variations (including non-native accents), and on the language model level task domain dependency, out-of-vocabulary words and variations in phrasing.  As has been witnessed over the past years, the hardware development has facilitated the application of ever more powerful models and algorithms, and it is expected that this will contribute to an evolutionary development of the performance of speech recognizers. The inclusion of higher level knowledge sources, e.g. semantics will most likely be necessary to improve the accuracy of both dictation and advanced spoken dialogue systems, but this will not obviate the need for better modeling at the lower levels. The perhaps most challenging problem facing speech recognition is the handling of natural, spontaneous speech where current systems typically exhibit word error rates in excess of 30% (transcription of conversational speech).

Text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis has evolved from being rule-based to being more and more data-driven. This was initially the case for the sound generation, but statistical methods are gradually being employed also in the linguistic layers of the synthesis engine. The quality of synthetic speech is evaluated for intelligibility and naturalness, and current state-of-the-art TTS is mainly lacking in naturalness. Improved methods for sound generation and intonation modeling will over the next 15 years lead to speech synthesis engines producing highly intelligible and natural sounding synthetic speech. Among the challenges facing TTS development in the near future, we will see development of tools for efficient production of new synthetic voices and dialects; investigations into the characteristics and modeling of emotional speech; methods for improving the flexibility of TTS engines e.g. with respect to speaking rate and style.

The task of speaker recognition is to identify who is speaking. The sub-domain of speaker verification is the task of verifying a speaker’s claimed or assumed identity, usually for access control.  The main issue governing the prospects of success for speaker verification systems will be related to reliability, in particular against impostors. The issue can currently be handled fairly reliably, but can be questioned if future TTS systems provide means of fast and inexpensive methods for generating high quality synthetic speech from a limited amount of speech data from any given individual.

Telephony based and networked speech technology applications will be influenced by the projected adoption of the internet protocol (IP) for telecommunications [1]. Packet oriented speech transmission by voice over IP (VoIP) will introduce artifacts due to speech coding distortion, packet loss and round-trip delay that need to be addressed in future systems. Perceived speech quality is important to user rating of interactive voice response (IVR) systems. IVR is currently the largest application area of speech technology, and annual revenues are expected to grow to 3 billion USD by 2008 [6].

Spoken dialogue systems[2] are inherently dependent on the performance of the core modules of speech recognition and synthesis. However, correct recognition of every word is not necessary for the human/machine interaction as long as key words and phrases are correctly interpreted. Well designed dialogue strategies including error handling are essential for well functioning dialogue systems. Automated response generation, i.e. the generation of spoken responses from a response concept will improve the usability and flexibility of spoken dialogue systems.

Multi-linguality[5] will be an important issue. English may be the lingua franca (sic!) of modern society, but the national languages will prevail. However, foreign names and phrases will need to be understood by a speech recognizer and well pronounced by a speech synthesizer. Language identification is essential to switching a foreign language speaker to the correct language module in a spoken language interface. Another important aspect is the possibility of utilizing existing foreign language resources (speech and text data, statistical models) for improving the performance of speech technology systems in another language.

Multimodal[4] user interfaces integrate different I/O-modalities like speech, sound, graphics, text and user gestures such as pen/stylus on touch sensitive screens, eye movements and body movements. Such user interfaces are particularly interesting for small, mobile terminals where the terminal size precludes the use of standard I/O (keyboard, mouse…). Speech recognition and synthesis will be an important part of these user interfaces. Important issues include how to effectively integrate the various modalities such that the different information channels can be synchronized and disambiguated for maximal efficiency in use.

4. A successful Language Technology in Norway

Successful language technology infrastructure in Norway in 2020 will provide product types like the ones mentioned above, and an industry which is able to utilize national and international potential in language technology. Certain groups of disabled people will hopefully find help in language technology products like automatic dictation (blind people, dyslectics, and persons with serious physical handicap) and naturally sounding, personalized speech synthesis (people being unable to speak properly).

But there is at least one major obstacle. Given that statistical methods will continue to dominate speech technology and at the same time will become more and more important in textual language technology, it is extremely important that Norwegian language resources are made available for research and commercial use in the years to come. If not methods and solutions developed for other languages, in particular English, will be predominant and the pressure to use English instead of Norwegian will be stronger. Hopefully Norwegian authorities will make sure that relevant resources are being created.

The Norwegian Research Council has intensified research on language technology, most notably via the KUNSTI program[7] which funds two major projects in the areas of machine translation[[8]] and dialog modeling with spontaneous speech[[9]], in addition to a number of smaller projects. Unfortunately, these projects, and most other projects financed by KUNSTI, suffer from the lack of language resources. There are fundamental research issues that need to be resolved in order to improve the general performance of language technology. Some of these issues will be language specific. Continued support of language technology research, maintaining a critical mass of activity on a high international level is a vital prerequisite for the success of Norwegian language technology. We assume that the KUNSTI program will be continued after the end of the current project period in 2006, and hopefully with a better Norwegian language infrastructure.

References

[1]     R.V. Cox et al: ”Speech and Language Processing for Next-Milennium Communications Services”, Proc. IEEE, vol 88, no. 8, pp. 1314-1337, August 2000

[2]     A.L. Gorin et al.: “Automated Natural Spoken Dialog”, IEEE Computer, pp. 51-56, April 2002

[3]     R. Rogoff: “Voice Activated GUI: The Next User Interface”, Proc. IEEE International Professional Communication Conference, 2001 (IPCC 2001), pp. 117-121,  Oct. 2001

[4]     S. Oviatt: “User-Centered Modeling and Evaluation of Multimodal Interfaces”, Proc. IEEE, Vol. 91, No. 9, Sept. 2003

[5]     A. Waibel et al.: “Multilinguality in Speech and Spoken Language Systems”, Proc. IEEE, vol 88, no. 8, pp. 1297-1313, August 2000

[6]     Datamonitor: “Voice Automation – Past, Present and Future”, White Paper for Intervoice, July 2003

[7]     KUNSTI web-site, http://www.program.forskningsradet.no/kunsti/, accessed March 2004.

[8]     LOGON info at http://www.emmtee.net/, accessed March 2004.

[9]     BRAGE web-site, http://www.tele.ntnu.no/projects/brage/, accessed March 2004.

[10]  Moores law, http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htm, accessed March 2004.

[11]  The Global WordNet Association, http://www.globalwordnet.org/, accessed March 2004.

[12]  EuroWordNet web-site, http://www.illc.uva.nl/EuroWordNet/, accessed March 2004.

[13]  SYSTRAN, http://www.systransoft.com/, accessed March 2004.

[14]  Consolidating and Increasing the Availability of Norwegian Human Language Technology Resources, report October 2002, http://www.sprakrad.no/sbank2.htm, accessed March 2004.

Learning with ICT

1. Introduction

This note is a contribution to the InfoSam project, and connects the proposal to considerations expressed in the mandate of LIKT, i.e. to specifically address research issues that relates to how information and communication technologies may be understood and utilized as integral and enhancing constituents of learning environments.

The project InfoSam reflects the fact that information technologies become increasingly interwoven into the social and cultural practices related to work, communication, entertainment and education. The coming generations of students, born from around 1990 and onwards, will from their early childhood have had access to game consoles, the internet, GSM and different digital devices, and have appropriated these into their lifeworld.

Consequently, the educational system will be influenced by the affordances of technology, both from within the educational institution itself, but also from the ways in which the information technologies are appropriated by learners in their activities outside the institution.

To the main axes of InfoSam, Enabling Technologies and Artefacts in the Human Environment, the research questions of LIKT borders onto several of the items on the agenda.

Through the sciences that are consulted to enhance our understanding of what learning and teaching is, a more complex understanding of learning and teaching emerges.  Increasingly, learning is seen as a complex interplay between individual and social processes, relations and activities.  More specifically related to a technological environment, this includes play and game metaphors, networks, simulations and immersion in virtual environments connected to open-ended exploratory learning assignments.

Also, the interplay with the environment, be that natural or technological, is also seen as more important. Salient theoretical points of entry are connected to the areas of learning theory commonly labelled activity theory and ecological perspectives on learning, and the tradition of Didaktik. Metaphors for learning and knowledge development revolve around concepts of interaction, participation and communities of practice in physical and virtual networks. Ecology is such a metaphor, applied to describe the relationship between man and his surroundings.  

To this is added an understanding that the information technologies constitute a part of the very fabric of how we communicate, how we are educated and entertained. These technologies are increasingly portable and connected to WiFi-broadband internet connections. Furthermore, technologies converge, such as the convergence of computer and communications technologies and consumer electronics. Consequently, functionalities migrate towards unified or hybrid devices. More so than previously these appliances and their functions are embedded in and intertwined into cultural practices. As accounted for elsewhere in the InfoSam context, information and communication technologies are in the process of becoming ubiquitous or ambient.  

In sum, the description above points in the direction of applying the term knowledge ecology as an analytical point of entry.  How will future learners develop skills, competences and knowledge in the framework of a knowledge ecology?

To the educational system, the challenge is to understand and utilize these into an overall project of reading the world. As integral parts of learning environments, these technologies afford ideas connected to change, interaction, negotiation, participation and influence. In short, this represents a strong departure from the traditional classroom.

Previous learning methodologies have often been based on all-embracing ideas that the learner should adapt to. Technology enhanced methods will afford more individualized learning methods, enabling more learner-centred approaches that approach methods as choices to be made after assessing the context.  

From the position of LIKT, a 10 – 15 year forward-looking research perspective will include the components and themes described in the below. The basic concern of an educational system is to address the questions of the how, the what, and the why. These questions are at the heart of Didaktik.

The development will be characterized by two trends; one is the shift from improvement to transformation.  

The first generation of ICT-enhanced learning tools and their accompanying methods have so far mainly represented an improvement aspect. In general existing methods have been incorporated into a new technological framework. The challenge of the next generation will be to transform the what, the how and the why in an integrated conception that reflects an interplay and coexistence with the affordances of technology.

The other trend is from representation to participation. Whereas up to the present, ICT in learning has been focused mainly on the affordance of representation, future approaches will focus more upon participation, where learning materials, learning processes and activities are seen in a context of the what, the how and the why.

Both trends incorporate an increased emphasis upon the procedural aspects of the learning activities.

2. Research themes

Below a few research themes are suggested. The net-based learning environments have applications and tools that give both the opportunity to roam or to wander, but also to gather and congregate.

The themes have in common that they address these dual forces of the IC-technologies. The net lends itself to learning styles that are distributed in time and space, and in that respect become highly individual, but contains also means to connect the participants and foster collaborative work forms.  

3. Theme 1

3.1 Perspectives upon technology

A major concern to the educational society is to develop a perspective upon technology that is integrated into the overall framework of education. This is a perspective that goes beyond the instrumentalistic notion of technology as merely a tool. Hitherto, the educational traditions have been somewhat reluctant to incorporate the presence of technology into educational design. This includes a long chain of interrelated themes, including the organization of learning, the re-conceptualization of a Didaktik that incorporates the net based learning environments, and the evaluation and certification mechanisms. The introduction of learning management systems (aka LMS) is but a first step.  

From the perspective of learning with technologies, more research will have to be conducted in the area where the interplay between learners and technology is the focus. One point of entry will be to study the complex and many-faceted interplay as to how affordances of technologies are appropriated into activities, processes and relations that enhance or even transform learning.

4. Theme 2

4.1 The learning resources: Hyperlinked, multi-medial and immersive virtual environments

In the very close future a substantial portion of the learning resources, if not all, will be available on the web. To the producers of learning material, including the educational institutions, this will enable a high degree of flexibility, of both keeping curriculum texts up to date, and to produce material on demand.

However, more important to the learner and teacher is the affordance of producing highly individualized learning materials. This aspect of web-based learning has several implications, some of which are already in their emergence, especially through ideas connected to portfolio assessment.

One also needs to perceive these changes in an ontological perspective; the ‘objects’ of the world are changed, “the world to be known”, in the way they are composed or assembled, and accessed through digitization. Among the effects of the net based learning resources in this particular respect is the blurring between the “authorized” and “unauthorized” material, thus adding a strong component of evaluation and assessment before the material is included.

These characteristics of the learning environment also represent a tension between in the need for exploratory and linear learning processes. Learning activities in these learning environments create a need for addressing in a didactic way continuity, coherence and closure. All these are aspects of a learning process that in ICT environments needs to be addressed more specifically.

One characteristic of learning as it is described within the prevailing present paradigm, the socio cultural, learning occurs in an intricate interplay between internalization and externalization. Or in other words, an interplay between cognitive and individual processes on the one hand, and social or collective processes on the other.  The internet has tools and applications that accommodate both aspects, but the exact relationship and the inner dynamics of these processes have not been given a thorough research attention.  

A fundamental aspect of the internet resources to follow with regards to development is the very nature of the web itself. Metaphorically, the web has been described as a library, but one where all the books are thrown on the floor. Worldwide, research initiatives are taking place with regards to the very infrastructure of the web, concerned with redefining the inner fabrics of the web itself through initiatives such as the Semantic Web.  Given that these initiatives will produce a “new generation” web, consequences will be substantial, and the development needs to be carefully monitored from an educational perspective.

The overall challenge will be to develop literacies that enable learners to thrive and develop in web-rich learning environments.

5. Theme 3: Enhanced interfaces and ‘intelligent’ tools

This theme reflects most explicitly the relationship between man and technology, one that might best be characterized by “a two way exodus”. Future interfaces will include a wide variety of tools, agents and avatars, and immersive simulated environments. A main characteristic will be the ability to adapt to both the technological environment, and to the human. These applications or tools will thus be in a middle or third position between man and technology, and a common denominator will be the increased ability to enter into dialogues with these tools. As mediating artefacts, these may bee seen as interlocutors, offering an interlanguage between the learner and technology.

Basically, one may distinguish between three different types of artefacts, although they tend to appear in clusters.  Learning behaviour involves the movement between all three levels of artefacts.  

Primary artefacts are the tools themselves, the “axes and clubs” and applications such as word processors. Secondary artefacts are the resulting practises that occur out of the interchange between the tool and the established practice, i.e. ”e-mail- language”. Tertiary artefacts are established when the tools and practices change the social and cultural realities, and reach into the very perspective of the how we perceive the actual world.  In this respect tertiary artefacts may initiate change in current practice, usually representing a deep saturation of techno cultural practices. 

These three types also represent a continuum, where the third stage represents a deeper saturation of the way the tools and the associated practices are appropriated into our daily lives. This type of artefacts will occur when a critical mass of people have lived in technological settings over a long time, and technology “disappears” into the fabric of everyday life.  We are beginning to see the effects upon a generation of learners who are born into this setting, thus representing a challenge to the educational system.  

6. Theme 4: Educational challenges

The following topics are seen as some of the consequences of the description suggested in the above.  

6.1 A: From classrooms to virtual campuses

The future learning context is on the one hand characterized by a migration out of the traditional classroom context, one in which co-localization of learners, teachers and learning materials are less typical.  On the other future learners will not be restricted to one physical campus, but will rather migrate between courses held at campuses in different countries, and even on different continents.  Learner behaviour or learner styles will thus need to be addressed.  On an on-campus level, the need for research and development into infrastructure development is required.

6.2 B: Environments for collaboration

The last few years have seen a growing interest and institutional efforts to incorporate learning management systems (LMS) as a component of the educational offer.  The most used at present are It’s learning and ClassFronter, both sharing a fairly similar set of functionalities.  However, the present generation of LMS tend to focus upon elements of control and information representation, say, in the form of lecture material dissemination, channelling student papers to teachers and tutors, to name some examples.  Future realizations of LMS will need to address more thoroughly the participation and production aspect of the learning processes, in which learners are connected in collaborative efforts, emphasizing how the individual may be “enhanced” through being connected to other people and external resources through dialogue.  Added functionality will include audio, streaming video in a more technological mature realization than what we have seen up to now.

An interesting line of development is the relationship between an LMS and a various handheld portable devices.  Handheld multifunction (i.e. GSM, MP3, PAD and storage in any combination) devices hold many promises seen in combination and as supplements to an LMS, thus extending the communicative and collaborative opportunities of the learner. The common denominators to the attraction of users are size and mobility.  This very mobility will mean that activities connected to learning may on the one hand be more incorporated into other activities, and on the other be more cut-up and even evasive.  As of yet the didactic implications of these emerging learning styles here are not fully studied and accounted for.

The incorporation of an LMS in the learning environment addresses both the two main trends pointed out in the introduction; the transition from improvement to transformation, and the transition from representation to participation. 

In sum, the interchange between the learner and the computer mediated learning environments afford the learner with a gamut of possible approaches to learning, spanning from the highly individualized and solitary work profile, to partaking in communities of practices that jointly develop and exercise their domain of knowledge.

6.3 C: Multiliteracies

The themes in the above lead to the challenge of defining and fostering multi-literacies- the skills, competences and attitudes attributed to reading the world in a digital context. Multiliteracies build on traditional literacy (reading, writing etc), but are augmented by coping with several semiotic systems that are blended into a unified but ever changing representation on f.ex. the web, in dialogic exchange with digital agents, or immersed in virtual environments. The notion of literacy as an analytical point of entry will define and clarify the skills needed for the learner, and will give way to describe new ways in which to utilize the ICT resources. Among skills in an augmented literacy are those connected to browsing for information, such as different reading strategies, navigation skills, verification and selection strategies, reading and incorporating text, sound, stills and video in a unified understanding of a given topic.  Dealing with dynamic, ever changing information systems will be one of these.

These skills are both of an operative and practical nature.

At the heart of a re-conceptualized understanding of the emerging multi-literacies is the dual notion of communities of practice and genre, which seen together extends the traditional notion of dialogue. 

In sum, the process of being skilled in multi-literacies, is to address questions of continuity, coherence and closure in the learning processes conducted in technology-rich learning environments.  

6.4 D: Assessments, the curriculum and certification

Our traditional understanding of assessment, curriculum and certification are under pressure.  Since the idea of a stable or fixed curriculum is more or less a thing of the past, the web-based resources will afford flexible curriculum and curriculum development at a higher speed than previously. Assessment and grading systems, as well as vocational certification will be influenced.  The relationship between the actual ICT-rich practices on the one hand and the questions of assessment on the other will need to be addressed from a research point of view.  

6.5 E: Epistemological considerations and challenges

One consequence of the themes briefly outlined in the above, is a need to re-conceptualize themes connected to epistemology, and establish the digital epistemologies as a field of research.

At all times, there has been a relationship between what we consider to be knowledge, and the means and methods by which this knowledge has been gathered, assessed and passed on through an educational system.  In addition, the educational system has had an elaborate grid of control and gatekeeper functions, and certification mechanisms. The educational system has also been built upon the premise that information has on the one hand been limited in terms of access (distribution through teachers and paper). These premises are now challenged. The impact of digitizing relates both to the learning objects themselves (hyper structured and multimodal), their availability, the problems connected to authorisation; in short, the very process of ‘coming to know’. From the perspective of Didaktik, this means a re-conceptualization of the core questions in learning and teaching: the what, the how and the why. 

The term the information society is by many critics now replaced by terms such as the integration society, the hyper complex society and the Network Society. From a learning perspective it becomes paramount to develop the ability to read the world, through dealing with a dynamic and ever-changing learning environment. This means a change of focus from a standard towards a procedural epistemology:

The distinctions between a standard and procedural epistemology may be sketched as follows (Lund 2004):

How this is carried out in communities or practice, how to identify and how to assess in the educational framework becomes a major research challenge. In short, the very constitution of ‘knowers’ in a techno-cultural framework.

7. Concluding remarks

The field of learning with ICT is a field that needs to consult a large variety of research areas, both from the humanities and from the natural sciences.  The main focus described above is a focus upon the interaction between man and technology.  We think that it will be a main characteristic of future generations of learners that they have from early childhood on their main points of references technologies used to interact and communicate, and are accustomed to shaping technology into constituents of their own lifeworld.  Their ability to develop, participate with, and share mediating artefacts thus goes far beyond the primary level, of only using the “clubs and axes”.

Furthermore, the field of research has a strong relationship to the field of practice, and research here need to be conducted in a close relationship with the users themselves, both the learners and the teachers. Research from the point of view of Didaktik has a strong emphasis of innovation and change of educational practice.  

8. Proposed priorities

On the “tool/technological” side:

• Research regarding the development and use of simulations and immersive virtual environments. These applications foster activities, processes and relations that are situated and contextualized, and address the learners’ development of qualifications, competences, creativity and culture. These applications will cover a broad span of applications, centered on learning metaphors of participation, immersion, role play, problem solving, hypotheses building and testing.

• Research regarding the use and development of learning management systems, and applications that address collaboration in virtual environments.

• Research regarding the development and use of dialogic agents that operate as interfaces between the learner and the learning resources.   

On the “cultural” side:

• Multiliteracies: what skills and competences are required in our understanding of the digital literacies, how can they be nourished and developed?

• Digital epistemology – what constitutes digital epistemology and how does it affect the traditions of the various subjects with regards to for example tradition and innovation, continuity and renewal?

• The relationship between literacies and the digital epistemology.

9. Coda

What won’t happen:

Schools won’t disappear

Teachers won’t disappear.

Students will still be around…..

Learning won’t happen without hard work.

References

Visions 2020 – Transforming Education and Training through Advanced Technology. http://www.technology.gov/reports/TechPolicy/2020Visions.pdf

Colin Lankshear: The Challenge of Digital Epistemologies.

http://www.geocities.com/c.lankshear/challenge.html

Feenberg, Andrew: Perspectives upon Technology.

http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/feenberg/

Lund, Andreas (2004):
The Teacher as Interface. Teachers of EFL in ICT-rich Environments: Beliefs, Practices, Appropriation. Doctoral dissertation UiO. http://www.ils.uio.no/forskning/doktoravhandlinger/docs/AndreasLund-avhandling.pdf

Løvlie, Lars: Danning i støpeskjeen. http://www.apollon.uio.no/apollon02-99/3.html

Murray, Janet: Hamlet on the Holdodeck.

http://www.lcc.gatech.edu/~murray/hoh/tablecontents.html

Norris, Mason, Robson, Lefrere and Collier

A Revolution in Knowledge Sharing

 http://www.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/erm0350.pdf  (EDUCASE Review Sept/Oct 2003)

The Semantic Web: http://www.w3.org/2001/sw/  

The Norwegian Program for Digital Competence (Program for digital kompetanse):

http://odin.dep.no/ufd/norsk/satsingsomraade/ikt/045011-990066/index-dok000-b-n-a.html

Tapscott, Don: Growing Up Digital

http://www.growingupdigital.com/

Enabling technology / Computation

- Mathematics
- Computational Science

Mathematics

1. Mathematics—a broad perspective

Mathematics is a remarkable invention of human thought, a purely logical construction independent of experience and yet the basis for our understanding of the laws of nature. Much of modern mathematics, beginning with the invention of calculus in the seven-teenth century, was developed in a close interplay with discoveries in physics and other natural sciences. It is now generally recognized that the need for mathematics is increasing, as mathematics provides the appropriate tool for modeling and understanding complex phenomena in nature, technology, and society.

While the interaction with science has persisted to this day, a distinct feature of mathematics in the twentieth century is its division into “pure” mathematics as opposed to “applied” mathematics. The extensive development of abstract mathematics in the beginning of the twentieth century, leading to new fields such as topology and functional analysis, was fundamental for the blossoming of mathematics since that time. This development could be viewed as an important intellectual liberation, but the downside was that parts of mathematics lost touch with its origins. During recent years, however, we have witnessed a notable reversal; nowadays, we see ever more examples of advanced mathematics, previously considered “pure” and useless, penetrating applied areas. The lesson is that the notions of  “pure” and  “applied” mathematics at best are time dependent, and serious mathematics should never be viewed as “useless”.

Mathematics is a vast area, and its literature grows exponentially. There are currently about 600 research journals covered by the authoritative Mathematical  Reviews, and some 75000 reviews produced every year. The total volume of the current literature is estimated to some 50 million pages.  Mathematics is today such a formidable construction that no one is able to overlook all of it, and most mathematicians can only hope to master a tiny piece of it. Making bold predictions about what parts of mathematics will come to use is therefore virtually impossible.

A safe prediction, however, is that mathematics will be applied in new areas, and more advanced mathematics will be used in areas where it is currently not in use. This development will continue at a rapid speed.  No area is ”safe” from the influence of mathematics and no area of mathematics is ”safe” from being potentially applicable.

An interesting example is algebraic geometry, a mathematical discipline that until quite recently was considered to be of purely academic interest. The prestigious Institute for Mathematics and Applications (IMA) at the University of Minnesota has devoted the academic year 2006/2007 to applications of algebraic geometry. The background for this initiative is that effective use of algebraic geometry is now found in applications such as optimization, control problems, bioinformatics, data communication, and computational geometry. This example illustrates the time dependency of the notion of “applied mathematics” and the potential utility of advanced mathematics of any kind.

Teaching and research in mathematics should keep the long-time perspective that serious mathematics is important and potentially useful. We should maintain and develop our excellence in the field[1].

2. Mathematics and computer technology

Modern computer technology has increased the need for mathematics, as well as the range of scientific problems for which mathematics is relevant. Computers have in many ways revolutionized the research in science and technology. Mathematical modeling and numerical and statistical computations are becoming essential components in an increasing number of fields, in the analysis of computer-generated data, in predictions, simulations, and verifications of theoretical models. Research in fields such as biology, chemistry, geology, and physiology depends more and more on computer simulations, and as a result, these fields are getting “mathematized”. Also, the mathematics needed in these fields becomes more advanced and sophisticated.

The 21^st century will show tremendous progress in our understanding of biological systems and the human body, and ICT along with mathematics and statistics will play a significant role in this development.

Many computations that were previously unimaginable, have now become routine exercises. This is not only due to better and faster computers, but also to more efficient algorithms. This point is illustrated by the following statement from the NSF report “Mathematics and Science” [4]: “For more than 40 years, gains in problem solving power from mathematical algorithms have been comparable to the growth of raw computing speed, and this pattern is likely to continue. In many situations, especially for multiscale and chaotic problems, fast hardware alone will never be sufficient; methods and theories must be developed that can extract the best possible numerical solutions whatever computers are available.” Thus the use and development of  “supercomputers” must be accompanied by appropriate mathematical competence.   

Another important consequence of the development of computer technology is that numerical simulations are relevant and pertinent alternatives in situations in which controlled physical experiments are either impossible or too expensive. An illustrative example is that of astrophysicists studying solar activities, a field in which the amounts of data are increasing exponentially. The use of modeling and computations, as a supplement or alternative to physical experiments, will be become increasingly important, both in scientific and industrial research.

The development of computer technology faces mathematics with new challenges that lead to new fields. An interesting example of high current interest is that of multiscale modeling. Strictly speaking, multiscale phenomena have been studied for a long time in mathematics, but the current development is driven by applied sciences and computational capabilities. The need for multiscale modeling can be seen in physics, where processes at different scales are governed by physical laws of different character, say, by quantum mechanics at one scale and classical mechanics at another. To quote [1]:

“Our computational capability has reached the stage when serious multiscale problems can be contemplated, and there is an urgent need for science and technology - nanoscience  being a good example – for multiscale techniques”.

Mathematicians and statisticians at NTNU should contribute to the “mathematization” of scientific and industrial research and be relevant and active participants in this development. Mathematicians at NTNU should be proactive in identifying those parts of the mathematical sciences that are important for modern applications, and this should be reflected in teaching and research collaboration.     

3. Predictions concerning boundary conditions for teaching and research at NTNU in 2020

• No revolution will take place concerning ways of learning. In recent years we have seen various novel ways of presenting new material: Using various electronically based methods we can display animations, illustrations, etc that make presentations more elegant and comprehensible than ever before. Furthermore, there has been considerable increase in the understanding of the human learning process. However, when it comes to the ”last step”, the individual understanding of new concepts, ideas, and techniques, it still requires hard and focused work by each of us. Our claim is that this will persist. In particular, there will be no effortless way of learning.


• Printed text will still be important. TV, radio, Internet, etc. represent competitors to the printed word, which, however, has proved to be surprisingly resistant to the fierce competition.  New handheld gadgets to represent text will appear, but traditional books and newspapers will continue to be important.


• There will be full convergence of all means of communication. We have seen an unprecedented development of our means of communication, e.g.,  mobile phones and internet.  There will be full convergence of Internet, TV, radio, phones, etc


• Proper and rapid treatment of information will become even more vital. We see that as a result of the tremendous development of the Internet we have an incredible amount of information available at our fingertips.  The understanding of this information, our ability to find, check, understand, and store this information will become increasingly important.


• Norwegian students will still mainly go to their local universities. We now see that most students in Norway go to the nearest university. NTNU has been an exception, and it is absolutely vital to keep it that way. The claim is that Norwegian students will mostly study in Norway, and the sincere hope is that NTNU will recruit from all of Norway. The competition between Norwegian institutions for the best students will escalate. The vast majority of students at NTNU will be Norwegian.


• All teaching of science and engineering at universities will take place in English. More and more students will come from abroad, and will demand lectures in English.


• At least one of the above claims will turn out to be blatantly wrong. Looking back at bold predictions about the future show that one should approach the present task of forecasting with caution.


• We know the potential number of students in 2020. One of the few sure things we can say about the future is the number of people in each age group. Our students in 2020 are already born!  We have to check carefully the demographic numbers.

Below are some additional references not referred to in the above text, but of relevance to our discussion of the future role of mathematics in general [2], [3], and at NTNU and IME in particular [7].

References

[1] Weinan E and B. Engquist, Multiscale modeling and computation, Notices Amer. Math. Soc. 50 (2003), 1062-1070.

[2] G. Høst, Hvorfor satser USA på matematikken? Kronikk, Aftenposten, October 30, 2003
http://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kronikker/

[3] Mathematics: Giving Industry the Edge, The Smith Institute for Industrial Mathematics and Systems Engineering, UK, April 2002. http://www.smithinst.ac.uk

[4] Mathematics and Science, National Science Foundation, USA, April 1999.
http://www.nsf.gov

[5] Preliminary Program; IMA Special Thematic Year on Applications of Algebraic Geometry,
http://www.ima.umn.edu/AlgGeom/

[6] Research in Mathematics in Norwegian Universities and Colleges, Research Council of Norway, August 2002,
http://www.forskningsradet.no

[7] Basic Research in the Interface between Mathematics and Information and Communication Technologies, Research Council of Norway, August 2002,
http://www.forskningsradet.no