Description of work
The work will be based on IMR’s expertise on 4-dimentional coupled numerical modeling of physics, chemistry and biology (lower trophic levels) and the modeling of trophic interaction on higher levels. A major challenge will be to find ways of estimating the total uncertainty of estimated state variables.

The work in WP2 will consist of 8 components:
1. Validation and potential improvements of NORWECOM (a model for physics and phytoplankton).
2. Extention of NORWECOM with IBM modules for zooplankton and fish larvae growth, mortality and distribution
3. Assessment of the need for data assimilation and validation (together with WP3)
4. Perform and analyse historic climate and ecosystem simulations (time-series) for statistical investigations towards fish stocks (e.g. prediction of recruitment (see the ES306048 NOREC application), growth and mortality (early warning))
5. Define the new format, including resolution in space and time, of multi-species population models being able directly or indirectly to integrate information from the lower trophic levels, fish physiology and behavior
6. Evaluate the contribution of adding ecosystem dynamics
7. Evaluate strategies for meeting the defined requirements for implementing ecosystem dynamics by combining existing models and knowledge on dynamics not already utilized.
8. Perform climate change simulations and investigate the likely consequences on key components

Relations to other WPs
Due to the major direct effects of the marine climate or physics on the marine ecosystem dynamics including the fish stocks (and indirectly bottom up through the lower parts of the food chain), it is crucial for all the other WPs to consider the highly variable physical-biological framework.