The econometrics of macroeconomic modelling

The researchers Gunnar Bårdsen, Øyvind Eitrheim, Eilev S. Jansen and Ragnar Nymoen who are or have been affiliated with the Research Department in Norges Bank have published a book on empirical macroeconomic modelling.

The book The econometrics of macroeconomic modelling is published by Oxford University Press and has its origin in empirical research on inflation which has been carried out in Norges Bank over the past 15 years.

The first part of the book describes, interprets and evaluates the past 40 years' developments in international research aimed at explaining inflation in small open economies. The last part of the book discusses applications of a small aggregated macroeconometric model to making conditional projections of the economy, as well as to evaluating the performance of different types of monetary policy rules. Finally, the book discusses factors behind forecast errors and in particular how structural changes in the economy potentially can give rise to forecast failure.

The empirical research program underlying the book is useful in conducting analyses of relevance to price stability and financial stability, the two main areas of responsibility for central banks. The insights gained through this research program will be followed up and are valuable in the development of Norges Bank's new macroeconomic models.


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Last updated 14.04.2005