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statistikk
2002-12-05T10:00:00.000Z
Population;Population
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folkfram, Population projections, population projections, population size, inhabitants, population development, projection variants, births, deathsPopulation projections , Population count, Population
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Statistics

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Population projections, 2002-2050

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New population projections for 2002-2050

Statistics Norway's new population projection shows a more rapid increase in the future number of elderly than previously projected. The number of persons 67 years and older will double from 2002 until 2050.

More details about the results can be found in the Norwegian article ), and in Official statistics of Norway: Population Projections 2002-2050, National and Regional Figures

The main assumptions are given in the table below.

Assumptions for the projections 2002-2050
 
  Registered Alternatives
  L M H                      0
 
Total fertility rate (children per woman)          
2001 1.78        
2002   1.74 1.75 1.77 1.75
2005   1.70 1.80 1.90 1.80
2050   1.40 1.80 2.20 1.80
Life expectancy at birth (years): men          
2001 76.2        
2002   76.0 76.3 76.6 76.3
2050   81.6 84.2 86.7 84.2
Life expectancy at birth (years): women          
2001 81.5        
2002   81.4 81.6 81.9 81.6
2050   86.0 88.1 90.0 88.1
Difference between women's and men's life expectancy (years)          
2001 5.3        
2050   4.4 3.9 3.3 3.9
Domestic mobility: Expected number of migrations over the life course 1          
1990-1995 1.9        
1996-2001 2.2        
2001 2.3        
2002   2.3 2.3 2.3 0.0
2050   1.9 2.0 2.2 0.0
    Migration pattern
as in 1990-1995 		Migration pattern
as in 1990-2001 		Migration pattern
as in 1996-2001 		No migration 
Net immigration per year          
2001 7 955        
2002   16 000 18 000 19 000 0
2003   9 000 15 000 20 000 0
2004-2050   6 000 13 000 20 000 0
 
1   Internal migration is defined as change of projection region during one calendar year. The 94 projection regions are the same as the 89 economic regions, except for five cities (Kristiansand, Stavanger, Trondheim, Bergen and Tromsø) that are treated as separate projection regions. Oslo is one economic region.

The population is projected by single years of age and sex for each of the 434 municipalities of Norway until 2020 and for each of the 19 counties until 2030. The table below shows the number of municipalities that are expected to increase or decline in population size in the next eight years, according to different projection variants.

Number of municipalities with growth/decline in the population in 2002-2010
 
  Registered Variants
  1990-2002 Low national growth LLML Medium national growth MMMM High national growth HHMH Low mobility MMLM High mobility MMHM No migration MM00
 
Decrease  217  233  180  137  161  198  171
No change 1 20 27 21 18 32 27 52
Increase  197  174  233  279  241  209  211
 
1   'No change' means a growth between -0.5 and +0.5 per cent per year.