Introduction to Methods in Weather Forecasting

Aim and Content

GEOF321 introduces weather forecasting based on numerical models. The elements of the numerical systems are explained and guidance for the interpretation is given. Weaknesses associated with coarse spatial and temporal resolution, parameterization, surface boundary conditions and initial conditions are explored. An introduction is given to analysis and tracing of forecasting errors, predictability, data assimilation, and ensemble forecasting. The link between atmospheric dynamics and weather systems is revisited and used in connection with the interpretation of output of numerical prediction models.

Learning Outcomes

Upon completing GEOF321 the student should:

- know about the construction and limitations of numerical weather models

- understand the concepts of predictability, ensemble forecasting, and data assimilation

- be able to prepare weather forecasts

- assess uncertainties of weather forecasts

- link processes at low- to high tropospheric levels to conceptual models of dynamic meteorology

Course offered (semester)

Spring. The course is only offered if enough students enrol.

Language of Instruction

English, Norwegian if only Norwegian students.

Department

Geophysical Institute

Pre-requirements

Bachelor in meteorology and oceanography, or equivalent programs.

Recommended previous knowledge

GEOF220, or GEOF310, or equivalent courses.

Teaching Methods

2 lectures á 2 hours per week.

1 exercise á 2 hours per week.

Compulsory Requirements

Regular attendance of the course exercise including presentation of own solutions. Mid-term exam, written, must be passed in order to be allowed to take final exam.

Assessment methods

Written mid-term exam, counts 20 % of the final grade and must be passed.

Final exam, oral, 45 minutes. Counts 80 % of the final grade and must be passed. No auxiliaries allowed for the exam.

Grading Scale

The grading scale used is A to F. Grade A is the highest passing grade in the grading scale, grade F is a fail.

Place of Teaching

Bergen

Contact Information

studieveildeder@gfi.uib.no