6087
statistikk
2005-12-15T10:00:00.000Z
Population;Population
en
folkfram, Population projections, population projections, population size, inhabitants, population development, projection variants, births, deathsPopulation projections , Population count, Population
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Statistics

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Population projections, 2005-2060

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Strong population growth expected

The new population projections for Norway to 2060 show that the population size is expected to grow, unless both net immigration and fertility decline significantly. The population will age rapidly, especially after 2013, and the population distribution is becoming more centralised.

A new method for projecting mortality yields life expectancies that are similar to those projected for 2002-2050. This results in approximately the same number of persons over age 67 but a lower number of the oldest-old, i.e. above 90.

The table below gives an overview of the assumptions.

Overview of the assumptions for the projections. 2005-2060
 
  Registered Alternatives
              L             M             H             0
 
Total Fertility Rate          
2004 1.828        
2005   1.84 1.84 1.84  
2060   1.4 1.8 2.2  
Life Expectancy at birth: Men          
2004 77.50        
2050   82.3 84.7 86.5  
2060   83.4 86.0 87.8  
Life Expectancy at birth: Women          
2004 82.11        
2050   86.0 88.9 91.3  
2060   86.9 90.1 92.7  
Net immigration per year          
2004 13 211        
2005   16 705 16 705 16 705 0
2010-   9 000 16 000 24 000 0
Domestic mobility: Expected umber of migrations
over the life course 1		          
2000-2004 2.19        
2004 2.10        
2010-   1.74 2.10 2.45 0
 
1   Based on migration probabilities for 2000-2004 less about 7 prosent. In the low alternative the
probabilities for ages 18-29 år are reduced by 40 per cent and in the high alternative increased by
40 prosent.

Detailed figures can be found in the statistics bank of Statistics Norway.

 

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