 -
Che, Luis, come here! I want to ask you a question. Given
the current Argentine situation, for how long do you think
you have to wait in order to see a substantial social improvement
in this country? The response comes quickly. - I do not think
I will see any changes here; neither will my children, nor
my grandchildren. Perhaps the children of my grandchildren
will experience a more fair and equal Argentina. The year
is 1997, writes Henrik Schiander, last year’s student at the
Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration
(NHH).
How many tears do you have left, Argentina?
Second to New York, Buenos Aires received the
most immigrants from Europe at the turn of the twentieth century.
After a soiled past, having slaughtered indigenous people
all the way from the River Plate down to the Land of Fire,
the new settlers imported technology from Europe’s industrial
revolution and Argentina blossomed into a world economic power
- being the biggest exporter from all of the Americas in 1929.
Ever since, the now 36 million inhabitants’
nation has experienced a development much like a long roller-coaster
ride; upturns and depressions, military dictatorship and civil
rule, good living standards and scarcity. The driving force
has almost always been populist governments aiming for nothing
but reelection. The price has been shorter periods of fast
growth followed by long and deep recessions. After hyperinflation
reached a peak in 1989, Carlos S. Menem was elected president,
and two years later he pegged the Peso at parity to one US
dollar. The first half of the decade saw unparalleled macro
economic growth and soaring optimism. When the shape of the
underlying real economy was acknow- ledged, International
Monetary Fund’s (IMF) former «best pupil in the class», realized
that she was facing possibly the worst downturn in her history.
Argentina is today a poverty stricken population,
where almost 50 percent live for less than 250 US dollars
a month and nine percent for less than 100 US dollars a month.
250 US dollars is the minimum amount required to maintain
a shelter and buy a basket of essential food. The Argentine
National Bureau of Statistics and Census have set these definitions
of poverty, and the numbers are the most recently published
(February of 2003). More than 30 percent is without an ordinary
job. In 2002, Argentina’s GDP decreased with 11 percent, and
over 100.000 persons fled the country in despair, in search
of a better future. One major problem that must be solved
is the lack of export possibilities for Argentina’s principal
goods - cereals, dairy products, meat etcetera. Being one
amid many emerging economies, Argentina suffers heavily from
the protectionist policies advocated by the world’s big trading
blocks. Another vital issue is the complete loss of confidence
from the world (capital) markets. Having only lived up to
four out of 19 agreements reached with the IMF since 1958,
it is unnecessary to say that the world community has its
reservations regarding further investments.
A positive thing you can read about in today’s
newspapers is the new tourist boom. The «playas» of the Atlantic
coast are being invaded by Brazilians, Chileans and others
seeking to get better value for their money. In 1999 it was
Brazil who enjoyed this positive effect of devaluation. Another
encouraging sign is the popular uprising against an institutional
system that is closer to hypocrisy than democracy, looking
at the ruling forces abuse of an entire nation’s wealth and
future prospects. The «Country of Silver» is beleaguered with
parasites crawling inside a rotten tree filled with narcissism,
corruption and privileges benefiting only the very few. If
there is light to be seen at the end of the tunnel, it must
be a revolution-evolution towards a new class of civil servants
and politicians that are more preoccupied with the well-being
of Argentineans rather than going to parties in Punta del
Este (Uruguay), South America’s Côte d’Azur, spending money
on cheap casinos and showing off at beach fashion shows. Argentina
needs not only reforms of the economic system, but a structural
change assuring a more independent judiciary, a transparent
governing rule and a coordinated federal construction - where
regional economic duties are better aligned with claims. The
good spirit of the people of Argentina, despite weakening
every day, will probably lift the country once more, but will
it merely be the start of yet another hopeless cycle?
The year is now 2003, and returned to Buenos
Aires, I was unfortunately not able to ask Luis the same question
again. But you can perhaps guess what the answer might be.
12.02.03
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